Nepal Politics

Nepali Politics:

In April 1990, following a short movement for the restoration of democracy by the banned political parties, a multiparty parliamentary system had been restored in Nepal. During the interim period prior to the general elections, an all-party government was formed. The general elections were held in 1991, and the Nepali Congress party won a commanding majority. However, soon after forming a majority government, an internal discord developed within the NC party, particularly between the Prime Minister G.P. Koirala and the NC Supreme Leader Ganesh Man Singh Shrestha. Although Ganesh Man Singh did not actively participate in the government, he became his own party's main critic.
By 1994, the internal split within the party made it impossible for the Koirala government to govern effectively. This has ultimately led to the resignation of the PM in July 1994 and a call for mid-term elections that were held in November of the same year. Unfortunately, NC entered the election campaign a as divided party. On the eve of the elections, the NC Supreme Leader made an ominous statement: "...the Nepali people must bring about the defeat of Congressmen of the G.P. Koirala brand. The Nepali people, who have been able to uproot the Rana and Panchayat regimes, have now obtained an opportunity to throw away such elements. I have full confidence that they will do so."
The Supreme Leader's predictions were reflected in the election results. NC suffered a major defeat with only 83 members elected compared to 88 for the UML Communist party. However, the popular vote was still in NC's favor: 33.38% compared to 30.85 for the UML. The big election surprise was the gain made by the National Democratic Party, formed by politicians from the former Panchayat era, with 20 MPs elected. The NDP now held the balance of power.
The King appealed to the political parties to form a majority coalition government to assure political stability in the country. Although inter-party negotiations took place, it soon became apparent that no two parties could find a common platform in order to form a coalition. Ultimately, the UML Communist party that had won the largest number of seats in the parliament formed a minority government.
After a few months in power, following a no-confidence motion, the UML minority government was replaced by a NC-NDP coalition government, although the negotiations between the two parties following the mid-term elections to form such a government had failed. All key political parties in Nepal suffer from some degree of internal discord. The NDP can be best described as two political parties, each with its own leader, that have joined forces under the NDP banner, but cannot really function as a unified political entity. The UML (United Marxist-Leninist) Communist party also suffered from a major internal discord.
The disunity within the NDP resulted in the defeat of the NC-NDP coalition government in a vote of confidence in February 1997. Ten dissident NDP MPs including their parliamentary leader, Lockendra Bahadur Chand, subsequently formed an alliance with the UML Communist party. The UML had 89 seats in the House against 20 for the NDP. Yet, the Communists were so keen on returning to power that they have pledged to allow the NDP parliamentary leader to become the Prime Minister, if the NDP agreed to form an alliance with the UML. Although initially all twenty NDP MPs supported the NDP-UML coalition, it soon became obvious that this rather strange alliance would not last. Early in October 1997, fourteen NDP MPs have joined the opposition MPs to bring down the NDP-UML coalition government in a no-confidence motion.
Following the defeat of the NDP-UML coalition government, the President of the NDP, Surya Bahadur Thapa, was appointed Prime Minister and a new NDP-NC coalition government formed. However, it was doubtful that this latest NDP-NC alliance would bring about political stability to Nepal. The very same day the new government was sworn-in, K.P. Bhattarai, one of the two key leaders of the NC, resigned from the Central Working Committee of the party, because his advice regarding the selection of NC MPs for ministerial posts was not sought. Although he later on withdrew his resignation, it was a clear indication of a discord among the key party leaders. The former NDP PM, L.B. Chand, also publicly expressed his opposition to his own party's President and Prime Minister, S.B. Thapa, and in January 1998 formed his own party, the New National Democratic Party.
From the very moment the new NDP-NC coalition government assumed power, it became evident that it will not be able to govern effectively. Just two months after having been sworn-into office, the UML called for a special session of parliament to debate a motion of no-confidence. The PM was opposed to the call for a special session of the house and sought to dissolve the parliament to set a stage for new mid-term general elections. However, on the advice of the Supreme Court, the King instead issued a call for the special session of the House. The no-confidence motion tabled by the UML was defeated and due to the changed circumstances, the PM decided not to call new mid-term general elections.
Early in March 1998, there was another major development in Nepal's politics. The United Marxist Leninist Communist party split. Forty dissident UML MPs formed a new Nepal Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist) CPN/ML. This latest development may lead to an even greater political instability within the country. The leader of the new party called for the formation of a revolutionary movement to bring about a radical change in the nation. The ultimate goal of the revolutionary movement would be the establishment of a republican state in Nepal. One other ultra-leftwing party, the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) that has presently no representation in the legislature, has already been engaged in revolutionary activities in various parts of Nepal since February 1996 under the slogan "People's War". Although the "People's War" movement initially started in three districts in western Nepal, it has gradually spread to about fifty districts of the country. The movement has been associated with many acts of violence and has been a major cause of concern for any legally elected government. No government, past or present, has been able to resolve the Maoist problem.
At the time the NDP-NC coalition government was formed, the leaders of the two parties agreed to alternately lead the government every six months by rotation. In compliance with this understanding, PM S.B. Thapa resigned early in April 1998 to allow NC President G. P. Koirala to lead the government. One day after PM S.B. Thapa submitted his resignation, the new PM and NC President G.P. Koirala informed S.B. Thapa that the NDP-NC alliance had come to an end due to the split of the NDP. Following the split of the CPN/UML, NC became the largest political party with 87 seats in the parliament and intended to govern alone as a minority government. Thus, during the forty months since the 1994 mid-term elections, Nepal's government has changed five times. Just one day after the new Koirala government was sworn in, 60 NC MPs boycotted the session of the House in protest over the composition of the new Council of Ministers. This is also a clear indication that the Nepali Congress party continues to suffer from internal discord.
Although the NC minority government survived the initial several months in office, it was under constant pressure by the opposition to either call general elections or to form a new coalition government. Since the NC party was opposed to calling new elections one year ahead of time, in August 1998, it has invited the CPN/ML to join the NC government. The CPN/ML party leadership was also opposed to hold the general elections prematurely. However, barely three month after the formation of the NC-ML alliance, major policy disagreements emerged between the two partners and in December 1998 all CPN/ML Ministers resigned and brought about the collapse of the latest coalition. Subsequently, the NC, CPN/UML and NSP formed a new coalition government. However, just three weeks after the formation of this latest coalition government, the parliament was dissolved and general elections called for May 1999.
One negative aspect to Nepal's politics is the large number of political parties, although the majority of them have no representation in the legislature. The revolutionary politicians are also having a difficulty in adjusting to parliamentary democracy. They prefer to take to the streets to express their political views. These politically motivated "agitations" and general strikes, staged by radical leftists, have been disrupting business activity in urban centers and usually result in violence and vandalism. The organizers always proclaim the strikes as having been successful, although the success is achieved by intimidation rather than by spontaneous public support. Other negative aspects are the internal discords that afflict all political parties, large and small. The 1994 general elections were contested by 23 political parties and 13 new parties have submitted applications to contest the 1999 elections. Realizing the current internal security problems, the caretaker government has decided to hold the elections in two stages. According to the Home Ministry, 70,000 to 90,000 police personnel would have been needed if the elections were held on the same day in all 205 constituencies, but only 29,000 out of the total strength of 40,000 could have been made available.
Now in its fourth year, the Maoist "people's war" has been a major problem, especially in rural Nepal where most of their terrorist activities take place. The death toll resulting from their activities has also been mounting. According to official sources, as many as 611 people had been killed during the first three years of the "people's war". Although the Maoist activities can be best described as terrorist in nature, there is currently no law in Nepal that would define them as such, and no past or present government has had the courage to deal with the problem in an effective manner. Since about one half of Nepalese politicians belongs to the leftist camp, there has been a fraternal resistance to taking any harsh measures toward political groups with similar ideological objectives. CPN/ML, the third largest political party in Nepal, has openly endorsed the aims of the CPN(Maoist) but disapproved of its working style. On April 23, the CPN/ML's General Secretary, Bam Dev Gautam said: "The Maoists are fighting bravely in the cause of change. Their path may be wrong, but the sacrifices they have made must be acknowledged. If the nation needs it, the CPN/ML too may follow the Maoist path." The CPN/ML also put the blame on the past NC governments for all the people killed since the start of the Maoist "people's war".
On April 26, the CPN/UML President Man Mohan Adhikary passed away. He was the only moderate leader among all the Communist parties of Nepal. The CPN/UML is the second largest political party. In the past, the CPN/UML also suffered from internal discord that has led to the split in the party and the formation of the CPN/ML by the dissident MPs. It will be interesting to see what effect Man Mohan Adhikary's passing will have on the future course of the leftist movement in Nepal.
The general elections are over and the election results gave a clear indication that the Nepalese people want to see internal political stability in their country restored. 39 political parties contested the elections, but only seven won representation in the House of Representatives. As of May 27, 201 MPs have been declared elected in the 205 seat House of Representatives. Some prominent politicians including PM G.P. Koirala contested two constituencies and won both. The duplicate seats will vacated and subject to by-elections. The Nepalese political scene continues to be male dominated. Among the 201 elected MPs only twelve are women.
The Nepali Congress party won a clear majority with 110 seats. The CPN/UML has 68 members elected compared to 88 elected in the 1994 general elections. This is may be due to last year's split in the party when 40 dissident MPs formed the new CPN/ML revolutionary party. It is also interesting to note that none of the 40 dissident former UML MPs who formed the CPN/ML party has been re-elected. As mentioned earlier, the CPN/ML General Secretary made statements during the election campaign in support of the Maoist movement that is the main cause of the current political instability in Nepal. The election results also suggest that the Nepalese people are not in favor of a major political change to a Mao style totalitarian state. Furthermore, all dissident MPs of the NDP party faction led by L.B. Chand also lost their seats. The NDP party led by S.B. Thapa has had 11 members elected compared to 20 elected in 1994, which at that time also included the MPs who supported L.B. Chand. The remaining 12 seats were won by four small political parties. K. P. Bhattarai, who was the first PM following the 1990 movement for the restoration of democracy, has finally won a seat after suffering defeats in the two previous general elections.
Although the Nepali Congress Party won the largest number of seats, the popular vote shows that the Communists, in spite of their election defeat, are still a major political force in Nepal. The popular vote was as follows: NC 36.3%, UML 30.73%, ML (the new revolutionary party formed by 40 dissident UML MPs) 6.42%, NDP (Thapa) 10.15%, NDP (Chand) 3.36%, NSP 3.18%. Only those six parties that had won more than 3% of the votes are currently being recognized as national political parties: NC, UML, NDP, ML, NDP (Chand) and NSP.
On May 27, K.P. Bhattarai became the new Prime Minister of Nepal. Talking to the media on his appointment as PM, K.P. Bhattarai said that his government would initiate steps to resolve the Maoist problem. He said, "We will have a dialogue with the Maoist insurgents. In case this initiative fails, we shall adopt a more severe approach."
The new majority government has been in office for six months, however, it has not yet taken any concrete action to deal with the Maoist problem. Both the PM and the NC party president appealed to the Maoists to abandon their acts of violence and come forward for talks within the constitutional framework. It is doubtful that any such appeal would result in a positive response from the Maoists. In the meantime, the terrorist activities not only continue unabated but have actually increased since the new government took office. In July, the Home Minister reported that since the start of the Maoist "people's war" in March 1996, a total of 884 people had been killed. By mid-December, the number of victims was more than 1,200.
During the short period the new government has been in office, the first cracks in party unity are coming to the surface. Just as was the case with UML and NDP, the NC party also has two leaders - G.P. Koirala and K.P. Bhattarai - each with his own following. Although on the surface the two party leaders seem to co-exist in harmony, they may not necessarily share common objectives. It was the internal discord within the party that has resulted in the downfall of the previous NC majority government in 1994. On December 14, some NC MPs who are loyal to party president G.P. Koirala, gathered at the house of his close relative and started a signature campaign to change the leadership of the present government. G.P. Koirala was also present at the meeting. However, NC internal crisis has at least temporarily been averted during a recent meeting of the Central Working Committee of the party. K.P. Bhattarai shall continue as PM at least till the end of winter session of the House.
This whole affair makes it clear that G.P. Koirala wants to be the Prime Minister again. He is a very aggressive politician, who also commands a majority support among NC MPs. Although G.P. Koirala fulfilled his pre-election pledge to allow K.P. Bhattarai to become the new Prime Minister, he has been very critical of the performance K.P. Bhattarai's government ever since it took office. In mid-December, he actually asked K.P. Bhattarai to step down. Instead of focusing their attention on the pressing needs of the nation, the Nepalese politicians seem to constantly engaged in struggles for power. The new government has been in office for only six months and already a major dispute has emerged among the key players.
While the Nepali Congress party is suffering from internal division, the two factions of the National Democratic party (NDP) have reunited again. The NDP first split during the 1991 general election and as a result made virtually no showing. In 1994 the NDP contested the mid-term elections as a united party and won 20 seats in House and was holding the balance of power when both NC and UML were in a minority position. However, the internal division continued and lead to the formation of the New NDP party headed by the dissident leader L.B. Chand. The two factions of the NDP contested this year's general elections as two separate political parties and the result was that 10 NDP MPs lost their seats. Although L.B. Chand joined the main party led by S.B. Thapa, L.B. Chand's former closest associate Rajeshwar Devkota announced on January 10, 2000 that he assumed the position of a leader of the NDP(Chand) party. It was also learned that the former (Chand) faction of the NDP party has not been officially dissolved as part of the reunification move. Devkota's move is also indicative that future internal problems within the NDP party are likely to arise.
The internal friction within the NC party may have at least temporarily come to an end as a result of the resignation of PM K.P. Bhattarai and the election of G.P. Koirala as the leader of the NC parliamentary party, and his re-appointment as Prime Minister of Nepal. Among the new ministers, sixteen belong to the Brahmin/Chhetri upper class and nine to other ethnic communities. The PM has also made strong statements directed at the Maoists, however, no negotiations on peaceful resolution of the insurgency were held with the Maoists since the formation of the new government, in spite of their apparent willingness to engage in a dialog with the government.
Finding a peaceful solution to the Maoist problem will be a very difficult task. During the early part of June, the Maoists have escalated their terrorist activities. At the same time, the general secretary of the CPN/Maoist in a press release spelled out the conditions for negotiations. It is doubtful that the government would accept those conditions which can be interpreted as a full amnesty to the insurgents. On June 15, during a meeting with the Foreign Affairs and Human Rights Committee, the PM said that the matter of talks with the Maoists is proceeding positively adding that he had no information about their demands and those demands and conditions published by newspapers could not be considered as authoritative. In the PM's view the Maoists should first present their demands clearly so that the government can, before initiating a dialogue, assess which of their demands can or cannot be fulfilled. Although the Maoist leadership has done so, it took nearly two months after receiving their official letter containing the undisclosed minimum conditions for the start of negotiations, before the PM gave the final go-ahead to S.B. Deuba, who heads the commission appointed to negotiate an end to the insurgency. At the end of July, S.B. Deuba sent an official reply to the Maoist leadership spelling out the government's position toward initiating the talks. On August 7, the Maoist leadership rejected the offer, because in their view the government failed to create the minimum favorable environment for negotiations.
This bad news came the same day as a new internal crisis was in the making within the NC party. This one stemmed from the PM's refusal to relinquish the presidency of the party after becoming a Prime Minister. Although these internal disputes seem to come and go, their frequency has clearly shown that a true unity within the NC party may prove to be an unattainable goal.
The government is now also faced with another problem. On August 6, a Pajero jeep allegedly driven by a member of the royal family, Prince Paras Shah, struck and ran over a motorcycle and it's driver, who died 30 minutes later on arrival in hospital. It was hit-and-run accident, the jeep did not stop and sped on. There were many witnesses to the accident, who identified the vehicle and noted it's license number. The accident probably would not have received much public attention had it not been for the fact that the victim was a popular song writer and singer Prabin Gurung. The whole affair is made more complex, because members of the royal family are immune to prosecution. Ever since the accident, there have been demonstrations in the streets of Kathmandu, as well as voices of protest made by MPs in the parliament, demanding that the Prince is stripped of his immunity and prosecuted. Almost immediately after the accident, the evidence that a cover-up was in the making immerged. It was only two after the accident when the government issued a statement that the singer was struck "by an unidentified vehicle", which was contrary to the known facts. By August 19, no further statement relating to the accident was issued by the government. The Prince apparently has a past history of traffic offences causing at least one death, but his royal immunity protected him from prosecution.
On August 20 or 13 days after the accident, two daily newspapers published the following statement made by P. Gurung's widow: " Whatever had to happen has happened. My concern was to look after the education and future of my two children. I have received satisfactory compensation from the first party." The Prince's father, Prince Gyanendra is a very wealthy local tycoon. Another development that has surfaced in this sordid affair a few days after the accident. Khadka Bhujel, a soldier confessed to having been the driver of the vehicle. Critics say that the soldier is being used as a scapegoat to save the Prince. It is believed that the driver of the vehicle was under the influence of alcohol. The Prince was returning home from a bar or nightclub, the Pajero jeep did not belong to the Prince or to the army. It was the property of the King Mahendra Trust for Nature Conservation. The Prince's father is a Chairman of the Trust. In the Parliament, opposition MPs were also critical of a circular issued by the District Police Headquarters seeking information about the identity of the police personnel, who provided details of the accident to the media.
On August 21, the media reported that Mrs. Gurung held a press conference relating to the accident resulting in the death of her husband. She announced that she was going withdraw the case, because she was assured of adequate compensation, a job for herself and education for her two sons. She also said that she did not agree with the views expressed by different newspapers regarding the accident: "I was shocked to see the name of Royal Family implicated in the accident; Prince Paras Shah was not involved in the accident, because there was no eyewitness to prove it, I urge everyone including the press to stop alleging anyone of murder of my husband - let this episode end here. The driver of the jeep Khadka Bhujel has given me a verbal assurance to look after my family and I am satisfied with it." When queried about the press release she issued one day earlier in which she has stated that "she already received compensation from the first party", she replied that driver Bhujel was the party. Mrs. Gurung said that she met the driver in jail on August 18 and he had given her assurances to look after her and her mother and also to provide funds for the education of her two sons. She also urged the press not to make any baseless allegations against Price Paras, I consider all allegations made to the honorable Prince as unfortunate." This of course leaves two questions unanswered: a) why did the Prince not ask the driver to stop after the collision instead of speeding on to flee the accident scene? b) what is the source of ordinary soldier's wealth to be able provide a generous compensation to the widow? We leave it up to the readers to reach their own conclusions.
One positive step taken by the government during the summer session of Parliament was the abolishment of bonded labor, which a form slavery. Of course, this step was only taken after the bonded laborers marched into the capital city to stage protest demonstrations and sit-ins. There were still many thousands of bonded laborers in Nepal. It took ten years since the restoration of the parliamentary systems before the step to free them from hereditary bondage was finally taken.
However, in spite of the widow's plea to put the case to rest, and the admission of a soldier that he was the driver of the vehicle, public pressure to investigate the case continued. On August 23, leftist students have submitted a petition with half a million signatures to the King demanding action against Prince Paras for his alleged involvement in the accident. Subsequently, the Royal Palace requested the government to submit a report on the accident. The Kathmandu district court three times extended the deadline for the interrogation of the "suspected" driver. KMTNC, the owner of the vehicle involved and Nirmal Niwas, the Prince's residence, sources told a local newspaper that the soldier was never associated with KMTNC or Nirmal Niwas, but occasionally used to drive a rental pick-up truck. On Sept. 3rd, six leftist organizations gave the government a 14-day ultimatum to reveal all details of the accident and on Sept. 4, the KTM Police Dept. has withdrawn the case against Bhujel. At the same time, the government announced that it shall present a "factual report" on the case to the Royal Palace very soon. It is very clear that the public does not get easily fooled in this accident case, especially since many details have already been revealed at the time it happened.
Former PM S. B. Deuba, who belongs to "younger generation" of NC leaders, intends to seek the party presidency at the NC National Convention in January 2001. He is accusing the PM and his camp of trying to rig the election for party presidency. It seems that the PM would like to see one of his supporters to become the new party President. He enjoys the full support of former PM K.P. Bhattarai. Of course, the PM now faces a new crisis within his party resulting from the Maoist attacks on the Dolpo district headquarters and a police post in Lamjung district during the last week of September. In the course of these two attacks 23 policemen were killed, 47 injured and 11 are missing. The Home Minister also resigned in the wake of these incidents and K.P. Bhattarai is asking the PM to also resign on moral grounds, because the law and order situation in the country is much worse now than at the time he himself was forced to resign seven months ago. G.P. Koirala forced K.P. Bhattarai to resign citing poor law and order situation.
The current worldwide increase in the cost crude oil, also seems to reverberate in Nepal. The government increased the price of petroleum products accordingly. The Communists are tried to get some political mileage out of it by staging almost daily protest demonstrations and processions and even calling for two-day general strike. The strike call was called off at the last moment, when the government announced that it would subsidize the cost of kerosene by almost twenty percent. In the past, the governments used to subsidize prices of essential commodities. One must also consider that the petroleum products' price increases affect only the urban population and the transportation sector and will have little or no effect on the cost of living in rural areas.
So far, no one seems to have focused the attention on the fact that cost of food grains in rural hill regions is considerably higher than in urban centres. Thus the urban population with its income generating capacity has a definite advantage over the subsistence hill farmers, whose fields do not yield enough food grains to meet their food needs between harvests. With little or no income generating potential, many rural families suffer from malnutrition. It is also estimated that due to the high inflation rate, the number of families living below the poverty line is increasing. The poverty line in Nepal is expressed as a minimum daily expenditure for calorie intake needed for survival.
Although the government responded to the pleas of bonded laborers and banned bonded labor, it was done hastily and without any due consideration as to their survival after liberation. In the latter part of November, the International Labor Organization (ILO) came to their rescue with $3.5 million project aimed at rehabilitation of formerly bonded adult and child laborers. The ILO also focused its attention on child labor in Nepal. It is estimated that there are currently 2.6 million child laborers in Nepal among which 1.7 million work full-time. Nepal's parliament still has to approve the international convention on elimination of child labor. These children of school age have been forced to work due to poverty. Many children are employed in the carpet industries despite the insistence of carpet entrepreneurs that they do not recruit children because their small nimble fingers are being considered suitable for weaving carpets. Many children work in restaurants as waiters and dishwashers. Thousands of young children, mainly girls, are also working in middle class households as domestic servants. These children suffer exploitation in the form of inadequate pay, physical abuse and a lack of opportunity for education.
Early in December 2000, the student wing of the CPN/Maoist forced a one-week long closure of all schools, both public and private, to press the government to meet their demands for universally free education, nationalization of private schools, ban on singing the national anthem and the teaching of the Sanskrit language.
The internal power struggle within the ruling NC party came to a showdown between the PM and the dissident group lead by former PM Sher Bahadur Deuba when on December 27, 56 NC MPs (out of a total of 113) registered a motion of no confidence at the NC parliamentary party office. The vote on the motion was held on January 4 and defeated by 69 votes in favor of the PM. 43 MPs of the dissident camp boycotted the vote because it was not held by secret ballot. S.B. Deuba again challenged the PM for party leadership at the NC convention held on January 22, however, the PM won with 64% of the votes cast. On the same day, the King also promulgated the Armed Police Ordinance 2057 B.S., intended to immediately activate the armed police force, since the parliament is not currently in session. The government also issued a strong warning against illegal possession of weapons by stating that any offenders caught with a weapon without a license would be severely punished.
On February 1, the Prime Minister's bid to reshuffle the cabinet to reconcile the inner party differences received a shock when the MPs loyal to S.B. Deuba refused to join the cabinet, however, a few days later they changed their mind. Also during the first week of January, the main leftist opposition along with the right wing NDP party presented a memorandum to the PM asking for his resignation. They are accusing the PM of failure to maintain law and order, control corruption and to solve other pressing problems. The main opposition party the CPN/UML has charted a plan, which includes "aggressive" dialog in parliament as well as staging "effective" street demonstrations. By acting in this manner, the Communists believe that the public will support their efforts to oust the PM. Any neutral observer must dismiss UML's plans as lacking in substance.
In the 1999 general elections, the Nepali Congress under G.P. Koirala's leadership won a resounding majority. All other parties, including the NDP were the losers. It was a vote in support of political stability and the restoration of law and order. All leftist parties have to share some responsibility for the current political instability by going "soft" on the Maoist insurgency. With nearly 2000 people killed since the start of the Maoist "people's war" six years ago, the main opposition UML party still considers the insurgency as a political and not a terrorist problem. They accuse the government of failure to maintain law and order, yet are opposed to the use of force to check the insurgency.
On February 9, the opening day of the winter session of parliament got off to stormy start with the opposition MPs demanding the resignation of the PM, alleging his involvement in the controversial lease of a jet aircraft by the government owned airline. Thus far, no one was able to produce any tangible evidence of any wrongdoing. The disruption of parliamentary proceedings continued for four consecutive days. The right-wing NDP party also joined the leftist parties in their efforts to oust the PM. The NDP also joined the two main Communist parties in their opposition to the ordinance related to formation of the Combat Police Force. Just prior to the opening of the new session of parliament, the PM formed a jumbo 37-member cabinet. Among the 115 NC MPs, 37 hold cabinet posts. This also reflects the patronage nature of Nepalese politics.
By the end of February, the winter session of parliament continued to be boycotted by opposition MPs. Although parliamentary democracy was restored in Nepal 11 years ago, the leftist political parties continue to stage street demonstrations, general strikes and agitations as a means to achieve their political goals. Their current goal is to oust the PM, something they cannot accomplish through parliamentary means, because the Nepali Congress party holds a comfortable majority in the current parliament. While some dissident MPs within the ruling NC party would also like to see the PM to step down, they are in a minority within the party and so far have not joined the opposition's chorus in support his ouster. Any neutral observer would agree that in the general elections held two years ago, the vote for the NC party and the defeat of the communist opposition was a vote for the restoration of political stability in the country. Although the five-year Maoist insurgency has spread into more than half of the country, the Nepalese communists still do not recognize the Maoist activities as being terrorist in nature. This leftist attitude is also putting pressure on the ruling side to tread carefully before adopting any drastic measures to suppress the five-year old insurgency.
The meeting between the PM and the Leader of the Opposition, Madhav Kumar Nepal on February 22 as an attempt to break the current impasse failed to reach a breakthrough. Nepal told the PM that he would have to consult other opposition parties on the issue. The five opposition parties insist that the PM resigns on moral grounds in connection with the government approved lease of an aircraft from Lauda Air of Austria. They suspect corruption, in which the PM is seen to have been involved. On February 24, the national airline issued a "white paper" refuting any irregularities in the lease contract. The document provides details of the procurement process. At the time when some government agencies objected to the leasing of another aircraft, the lease agreement was already completed and advance payments made to Lauda Air. None of the opposition parties involved in the parliamentary boycott has any tangible evidence of any wrongdoing. Their goal is to unseat the PM, a very forceful politician who is highly unpopular among all leftist political parties. At a special meeting by NC lawmakers, the PM received their full support in his determination not to give in to the opposition's demands for his resignation. However, parliamentary proceedings continue to be at a standstill.
When one considers the ideological division of the country, with the Nepali Congress and the combined leftist movement each having about one half one half of the popular vote, on will realize that a government of any political party would have a very difficult time to govern effectively. Although the leftist parties are accusing the government of a failure to maintain law and order in the country, they themselves vehemently object to the passing of any laws or ordinances formulated to address the Maoist problem. Because no government in office since the start of the Maoist "people's war" more than five years ago dared to take effective measures to address the Maoist problem, the Maoists were able to establish their presence in virtually every part of Nepal. The present NC government has been in office for two years, yet it has not been able to deal with the problem so far. The Maoist leadership is posturing itself as if they has the upper hand. They have also intensified their attacks on the police posts that are currently their main target. On April 2 alone, they killed 35 police personnel and abducted 23 and inflicted injuries to many more, yet other than condemnation, no counter measures to deal with the escalating violence have been announced by the government. During the first week of April, Maoist attacks on police posts in four districts left 72 police personnel dead, at least 40 seriously injured and 35 abducted.
Also, the two ordinances intended to address the Maoist problem we due to be passed by parliament by April 6, but could not due to the opposition's boycott of the parliamentary proceedings. The current unproductive session of parliament has also been ended. On April 8, the country celebrated the 11th anniversary of the restoration of multi-party democracy, however, there was little reason for jubilation in view of the current political turmoil faced by the country. Although the government discussed available options to deal with the recent escalation of Maoist terrorist activities, no decision was yet made. The communist opposition, in its verbal attacks is blaming the government for the failure to maintain law and order in the country. Yet it is the communist opposition's lenient view of the Maoist activities that is making it difficult for the government to resort to drastic measures to stop the violence. The nine leftist parties alliance, which includes the main opposition CPN/UML party, is determined to force the PM to resign. In their latest move, as of Monday, April 16, they plan to block the entrance to the government offices, in order to prevent the PM from entering them.
On April 12, the General Secretary of the main opposition CPN/UML Madhav Kumar Nepal made the following statement: "We demanded Koirala’s resignation in the parliament and now we are doing the same on the streets. If street protests also fail to force Koirala to step down, then in such a situation we could come to take arms ... if such situation was to arise, what then will be the fate of the country?" Although some of the leftist parties including the main opposition CPN/UML participate in the mainstream parliamentary political system, their conduct reveals their revolutionary character that is not too far distant from that of the Maoists.
Although it was rather naive on the part of the leftist alliance to assume that they would be able to prevent the PM from entering his office, the unsuccessful attempt was made. Some of the demonstrators threw rocks at the PM vehicle as it drove toward the government offices. Subsequently, the situation turned rather ugly when the angry demonstrators resorted to vandalism and by setting on fire a number of vehicles and motorcycles, some of which belonged to private citizens or corporations. As was to be expected, the leftist alliance blamed the riot police for the mob's behavior. Although by the end of the week the situation in the city has calmed down, the six-party alliance that includes the main opposition party CPN/United Marxist Leninist and also the CPN/Marxist, Leninist, Maoist threatens to continue their agitations aimed at forcing the PM to resign for his alleged involvement in the RNAC jetliner lease contract.
The local press has also been critical of the undemocratic actions of opposition parties: "The use force and intimidation to oust a prime minister chosen through elections is inappropriate unless he was proved guilty of something. For communist opposition parties, who are schooled in authoritarian methods of governing, stalling the house, paralyzing the streets and creating a national sense of anarchy could be seen as a natural extension of their beliefs." The comments made by the US Ambassador and the EU that their countries would object to any change of government by unconstitutional means were considered by CPN/UML leadership as interference in Nepal's internal affairs. The PM also made it clear that he is not going to resign under pressure from the opposition.
The government also announced an Integrated Security and Development Program (ISDP) intended to be implemented by the army in the seven districts most affected by the Maoist insurgency. As was to be expected, the opposition parties immediately voiced their opposition to the ISDP, because according to their partisan view the program was intended to suppress political opposition. On one side they accuse the government of failure to maintain law and order in the country, yet at the same time are opposed to any measures that the government would introduce in order to bring an end to the Maoist atrocities.
The leftist opposition political parties continue their partisan demonstrations demanding the resignation of the PM. A minor twist has been added in the protest program. During the last week of April, the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority ordered the detention of a former Minister of Tourism and also a number of former executives of the state owned airline in connection with suspected irregularities in the jetliner lease contract. The opposition parties have been demanding the PM's resignation on the suspicion of his personal involvement in the lease contract. Now, since the PM has not been personally implicated in any scam, they are demanding his resignation "on moral grounds", because the detained minister is an MP of the ruling party.
While the Lauda Air jetliner lease contract was being investigated, the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee has undertaken its own investigation of the previous two jetliner lease contracts with China South Airlines and found that they also involved corruption. The first CSA contract was negotiated when a high-ranking Communist leader was the Minister of Tourism and Civil Aviation and was endorsed by him. The contract was subsequently extended under the terms, but at that time the Minister belonged to the Nepali Congress party. Since the PAC implicated a prominent member of the official opposition Communist party that is currently engaged in tirade against the PM, because of their suspected irregularities in the Lauda Air lease, the party leadership immediately condemned the PAC decision to seek legal action against all officials involved in the CSA lease contracts and formed its own committee to "investigate" the PAC findings.
The CPN/UML continues it's one point agenda to force the PM to resign. On May 27, the UML announced a three-day nationwide general strike, an action supported by all ten leftist parties. Although the party leadership proclaimed that their protest action would be peaceful, it turned violent. The demonstrators vandalized government office in an effort to close them down and set several government owned vehicles on fire. The toll was more than 140 people injured and four people killed. Some sick people also died, because road closures. The damaged caused by vandalism amounts to millions of rupees in addition to economic losses. The general strike planned for May 31 by Maoist sympathizers was cancelled, when the organizers realized it would be hard on the public to call another strike immediately after the three-day mayhem.
The Communist politicians in the pursuit of their own political agenda seem to completely ignore the damage resulting from their actions. Based on past experience, they should have known that the people they recruit as demonstrators would turn violent. Because the NC government commands a majority in the House. They are aware that any non-confidence motion against the PM would be defeated, thus they try to achieve their objective through unconstitutional means. However, even if the PM should decide to resign, it will not result in any gains for the Communists. The present government would simply be replaced by another NC government with basically the same political agenda. Furthermore, all NC MPs reject the opposition's hint to call mid-term general elections. Although there are some dissident MPs within the NC party, they would never again allow the collapse of the majority government this time as was the case in 1994.
In the evening on June 1, a very tragic incident occurred that may have a profound impact on the already fragile political situation in Nepal. A routine weekly dinner party of the royal clan in the palace turned suddenly into a bloody carnage that left the King, his Queen, two of his children, his brother, three sisters, a brother-in-law and a son-in-law dead or dying. Although there were many versions of the shooting circulating in Kathmandu by informants who requested to remain anonymous, hardly any presented the true facts. It has also not been confirmed just how many people attended the dinner party, only that fourteen people were either killed or seriously injured in the shooting including Prince Dipendra, who allegedly committed suicide. The first person who publicly stated in an interview to a weekly newspaper on June 6 that Crown Prince Dipendra was indeed the gunman was the Prince's maternal uncle Suraj SJB Rana. On June 7, the media was called to a press conference at the military hospital to hear an eyewitness' account of the shooting. The account was presented by Dr. Capt. Rajiv Shahi, the son-in-law of Dhirendra, the youngest brother of the late King Birendra. Dr. Shahi, who also attended the dinner party, gave a detailed description of what he had witnessed before fleeing through the window to call for help. According to Dr. Shahi, Prince Dipendra became intoxicated at the party and was escorted to his own residence, only to return later on to commit the shooting.
What might have prompted the Crown Prince to commit such a violent act? The most frequently quoted reason was his parents' refusal to allow him to marry a wife of his own choice, the very attractive daughter of Pashupati SJB. Rana, a former Minister and currently NDP/(RPP) MP. During the past two centuries, since the rise to political power of the Rana clan, members of Nepal's Shah royal family always married a member of the Rana clan. The late King Birendra and his two brothers followed the practice. Thus it seemed almost pre-ordained when the Crown Prince Dipendra Shah fell in love with Devyani Rana and expressed his desire to marry her. But instead of welcoming Dipendra's wish, his parents were adamant that he would not marry Devyani. Apparently Devyani's Indian connection on her mother's side went against her. Probably due to occasional outbursts of anti-India sentiments in Nepal, the last thing the royal family wanted was a future Queen with Indian blood in her veins. But the Prince refused to consider any alternatives proposed by his obstinate mother. Three agonizing years went by, but neither the pleadings of his parents, nor their threats of disinheritance moved the Prince. Friday's family banquet at the palace was a weekly affair during which the Prince again expressed his wish to marry Devyani, and once again, he was turned down by his parents. What happened next is history now.
It took nineteen hours after the incident before the public at large was made aware that the royal family died but no details how were given. Then the Privy Council announced that in accordance with the constitution and local customs, Prince Dipendra was declared King to succeed his father. Since he was physically unable to conduct the affairs of state, the Privy Council appointed King Birendra's middle brother Prince Gyanendra to act as Regent. In his statement, Prince Gyanendra said that the royal family died as result of an accidental discharge of an automatic weapon. As was to be expected, with the funeral rituals for King Birendra over, early in the morning on Monday June 4, the uncrowned King Dipendra was finally pronounced dead. Although declared brain-dead by the medical team when he was brought into the hospital, Dipendra was kept artificially alive, so that his body would not be included in funeral rites for his parents. On the same day, Prince Gyanendra was proclaimed the new King of Nepal and crowned the same morning.
As soon as the passing of King Dipendra and his funeral arrangements were announced, massive demonstrations erupted throughout Kathmandu and Patan and the government had to declare curfew in both townships three days in a row. At least six people died as the mob battled with police and dozens were injured. Many demonstrators were accusing the new King of conspiracy. It is unfortunate that neither the government or the new King had the wisdom to tell the people exactly what happened in the palace the preceding Friday, especially since the country's leadership must have been aware of the details of the shooting from survivors and those who attended the dinner party and escaped unharmed. The media not controlled by the government apparently published some details of the assassinations, thus at least the city's literate population became aware of how the royal family died.
On June 4, the new King formed a three-member probe panel that included the leader of the main opposition in parliament to investigate the palace shooting and present its full report within three days. One of the appointees, the CPN/UML leader M.K. Nepal declined to take part because in his or his party's view the commission was not formed in accordance with the constitution. The two remaining members started the probe of the incident on Friday June 8, but doubts have already been expressed whether it would able to present its report as early Sunday. The new King's own version of the incident that the deaths were caused by an "accidental discharge of an automatic weapon" was disproved by information provided by survivors of the shooting and others who attended the palace gathering, as well as by Dr. Shahi, who gave an eyewitness' account of the incident at an informal press conference held under tight security in the military hospital on June 7. It was generally believed that Dr. Shahi's presentation on the palace massacre must have been authorized by the military establishment.
However, on Friday June 8, Nepal's monarchy disavowed the account of the royal witness to the murder of Nepal's King on June 1, and said it was launching an investigation into the matter. Angry palace officials said they had not known about or approved Dr. Shahi's statement, and there were unconfirmed reports that he has been detained and may face a court-martial. Although Dr. Shahi's public presentation was reported in independent Nepali media and by foreign news agencies, the government ordered the state-run TV, radio and newspapers not to report it and they obeyed. The palace murders must have deeply embarrassed Nepal's monarchy, and also because palace officials earlier said they were accidental. All this also shows that the authorities are confused and don't know how to present the situation to the public. The palace's abrupt disavowal of Dr. Shahi's statements and the possibility that he may even be punished for what he said have raised concern that the new monarch, King Gyanendra, is trying to quash dissent and assert power over Nepal's elected government. The army also published full-page ads in all major newspapers congratulating King Gyanendra and pledging to serve him loyally. The ads also warned that "misleading" information about the murders had come out, and the army remains "alert and disciplined" in the face of any threats to national security.
There is no question that the unexpected demise of King Birendra is going to reverberate in the country for some time to come. It is also too early to predict what the consequences will be in the context of the current fragile internal political situation in the country and on the future existence of the monarchy itself. In another development on June 7, the editor, director and managing director of Nepal's largest selling newspaper were arrested for publishing an opinion article by the Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai related to the royal assassinations. Although Bhattarai's views and conclusions were not based on known facts and could be interpreted only as Maoist propaganda, the arrests and the associated charge of treason are a major blow to the freedom of expression in Nepal. The editor and publishers have since been released on bail, but legal proceedings against them are pending.
The panel probing the royal palace murders presented its 200-page report to the King on June 14, who in turn asked the government to make it public as soon as possible. In general the report does not reveal anything that has not already been revealed eyewitnesses as mentioned above. At the press conference, the two-member panel also stated that the findings are not their judgment nor their conclusions. When asked what might have been the possible motive behind the massacre, one of the panel members said "I don't know", though he clearly said that the panel "put together the facts what it has found in accordance with the terms of reference" established by King Gyanendra. However, according to the report Devyani Rana, presumed to be one of the key persons behind the entire episode, declined to reveal details of the telephone conversations she had with Crown Prince Dipendra just prior to the incident.
The report also seems to have generated some doubts about the validity of the findings. One wonders if it were indeed the Crown Prince Dipendra who shot himself. "The shot was from the left side", said speaker Ranabhat, who could not explain why the right-handed Prince would use his left hand to pull the trigger on himself. Although both Dr. Shahi and Prince Paras stated that the Prince got drunk that evening, the medical records confirmed that there were no traces of alcohol in Dipendra's body. Also, there was no reason for the Prince to become irritated by his parents' objections to his wish to marry Devyani, since according to Dr. Shahi the subject of Prince Dipendra's marriage never came up during the evening. One also wonders how the Prince could handle three weapons, while being in a highly intoxicated state and only a short time earlier had to be escorted by three people into his living quarters. It was also said that Prince Paras begged Dipendra to save his and his sisters lives during the carnage. Does it make sense that a drunken person would brutally kill all members of his own family, but save the lives of others? It all adds to the confusion and suspicion of the already confused population There are also doubts that any post-mortem examinations of the dead bodies of the Royal Family ever took place.
There has been a somewhat negative reaction to the report by constitutional lawyers and experts in criminal investigations, who said that the report presented by the probe committee is incomplete and lacks professionalism. They said the report fails to corroborate eyewitnesses’ account with facts and also fails to reach any conclusion about the massacre. " It is not the conclusion but confusion that the report offers." The report tries to answer the question "Who?" by drawing inference, based on eyewitnesses' accounts, that the then Crown Prince Dipendra shot dead the King and other members of the royal family and relatives. But it fails to answer the question "Why".
The leaders of two other major parties urged the people not to question the impartiality of the probe panel. What has created doubts about the massacre in many people's minds and especially among the political extreme left was the statement by the royal palace that the "death were due to an accidental discharge of an automatic weapon". The immediate reaction to the statement by the extreme political left and especially by the Maoists was a theory of conspiracy. It will be interesting to see what the reaction will be to the report among the Nepalese people. The new King may have a difficult time to make himself acceptable to all political forces in the country. Two days after the report on the palace massacre was made public, the main opposition party CPN/UML in a press release stated that "it views the report in a positive manner". The UML is the only communist party that has accepted the probe panel's findings. The Maoists and other extreme left wing parties continue to support their conspiracy theory. The government enacted Public Security Regulations intended on curbing general strikes and other protest demonstration that usually result in vandalism. The PCR was welcomed by the business community, but deplored by the opposition parties.
The new session of parliament opened on June 25 and the government presented it's 14-point program. There has been no disruption of the proceedings by the opposition, however, the UML leader continues to demand PM's resignation. There has been some indication that there has been some privately concluded agreement between the PM and the leaders of the opposition parties, according to which the pledged to resign at the conclusion of the debate on the government's 14-point program. The PM himself must have realized that it would be in the country's best interest if he steps down, yet he does not want it to appear as if he were forced to do so due pressure by the political opposition. However, the main opposition party is putting a pressure on the PM to vacate his post as soon as possible. It would also be naive to expect that the PM's resignation would bring about any change in government policies. The NC holds a comfortable majority in the House and any future PM would simply follow in Mr. Koirala's footsteps. During the parliamentary debate, the government stressed the need for a dialogue with Maoists to end the insurrection. The NC General Secretary put before the House the question "With whom should we talk?, although the government took several initiatives to create an appropriate environment for a dialogue with the insurgents, they never seriously responded to the government's call for the resolution of the problem."
It is also no secret that the extreme political left dislikes the new King. He is probably the wealthiest person in Nepal, with financial interests in hotels, casinos and a tobacco factory. The status of being a wealthy tycoon and also a King of one of the world's poorest countries is not viewed favorably by the more radical leftist political parties. The CPN/ML has even gone as far as asking that King Gyanendra makes all his assets public and that any of his excess property be nationalized. They are also asking that assets of the assassinated members of the royal family be nationalized and the funds thus realized directed toward social works. During the first two weeks of July, the Maoists have escalated their terrorist activities in many parts of the country, which has somehow caught the security forces unprepared for such wide range attacks on residences of political personalities, including that of the PM and his daughter, on the destruction of communication infrastructures and police posts. The attacks on police posts resulted in the death of 43 policemen with many more injured and the abduction of almost 100 police personnel. The recent Maoist terrorist activities have reached crisis proportion. Although the parliament is currently in session, there has been no indication whether the government has any immediate plans to restore law and order. One can blame the government's inaction for the daring escalation of terrorist activities by the insurgents.
In a startling new development on the political scene, during the session of the House on July 13, the Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister Ram Chandra Paudel announced that he handed his resignation to the PM. In his announcement to the House of Representatives, the DPM said that democracy in Nepal is in crisis because democratic forces are divided and added that if democratic forces that fought together for the restoration of democracy in 1990 remain united, democracy could be saved. He also sharply criticized Prime Minister Koirala for failing to take initiatives and leadership for the resolution of national problems and accused the PM of breaching the confidence with opposition parties because of his greed for power. The DPM also expressed concern over the growing factionalism within his own Nepali Congress party. He also vehemently condemned the Maoist insurgents.
As for the PM, he said that he regretted DPM's decision to resign but at the same time reiterated that he himself is not going to resign, but at the same time has been in consultation with the key people within his own party to seek a solution to the current crisis within the NC party. In spite of any informal agreement that may have been reached between the PM and the opposition parties seems to have been ignored, since they again started to boycott the parliamentary proceedings. In view of the renewed political stalemate, the PM finally decided to resign from his post on July 19. The NC party leadership is now selecting candidates for the PM's post from among the younger generation of party leaders. Although the opposition welcomed Mr. Koirala's decision to step down, the more radial Communist leader P.K. Oli already suggested that his party would not support any new PM, who would represent Mr. Koirala's personal choice as a successor.
On Sunday, July 22, NC party MPs elected Sher Bahadur Deuba as the new Prime Minister. There were only candidates for the post, the second was Sushil Koirala, a nephew of the departed PM. However, Deuba received almost twice as many votes. The new PM is now in the process of forming a new government. Although it was generally expected that the opposition parties would welcome the election S.B. Deuba as the new PM, all leftist parties are expressing some apprehension based on S.B. Deuba's past record as a P.M. The new Deuba led government was sworn-in on July 26. In another development, in response to the new PM's appeal to the Maoists, both sides have declared a temporary cease-fire. However, given the rigidity of the demands made by the Maoist leader, it is difficult to speculate whether a mutually acceptable agreement could ever be reached. At least mass attacks on police posts have been suspended for the time being. The PM is also seeking a consensus among all political parties to prepare an agenda for talks. However, unless the Maoists drastically scale down the list of their demands, which also include preparations for the establishment of a republican state, it is doubtful that the government and the insurgents may ever find a common ground for negotiations. It was during S.B. Deuba's previous tenure as a PM when the Maoist insurgency and "people's war" was born.
The party leadership gave the PM full mandate to negotiate with the insurgents. However, there have already been some doubts expressed in political circles whether a mutually acceptable accord could be reached with the insurgents. A lot will depend on the attitude of the opposition toward the Maoists' demands, which in broad terms mean the scrapping of the parliamentary system as it now exists in Nepal. During the first week of August, the PM reached a consensus of all political parties that are part of the mainstream political systems on how to approach the negotiations and both sides have appointed their respective negotiating teams, although it is not known whether the two teams met. The new King Gyanendra in an interview with a prominent media person hinted that he wishes that his role within the framework of the existing constitution be properly defined. The King also said that he will not remain as a mere onlooker to the events in Nepal like his brother which means that he wishes to play an active role in nation's politics and made it clear that the constitution of the day must be respected and duly honored by everyone including the political parties and not only by the common people and the monarch. This also means that the King is aware of the fact that Nepal's political leaders have at different times during the 12 years of parliamentary democracy exceeded their role by ignoring the spirit of the constitution. It seems that the King henceforth may not be prepared to tolerate the excesses in the actions of Nepalese political leaders. The King also hinted that the establishment of a republican state in Nepal would have to be decided by the Nepalese people and not by one political faction.
The first meeting between the government's and Maoist's negotiation teams took place during the last week of August. Nothing was negotiated during that meeting, it was only an exchange of views and both teams agreed to meet again in the near future. Based on the public statements made by two Maoist negotiators following the meeting, one cannot be very hopeful that the insurrection can be resolved unless each side makes substantial concessions in their differing political agendas. Both Maoist negotiators publicly stated that their party is not going to settle for anything less than a republican state, interim government and a new constitution. The truce is also a shaky one, because sporadic incidents of violence continue, as well as collection of donations, extortion of money and forced closure of private schools.
The government also presented a land reform bill that shall limit the size of landholdings, and that any surplus land would be distributed among the landless against government compensation. This has brought a wrath of opposition from the two rightwing parties, the NSP and NDP, both being supported by the wealthy landholders but the government passed the bill in spite of protests from right wing MPs. The main opposition party CPN/UML managed to form a coalition of ten communist and leftwing political parties. This was obviously motivated by the sharp criticism of the Maoist leadership of UML for following a middle of the road policy. On September 3, K.P. Oli, one of UML's key leaders publicly advocated amendments to the present constitution and the formation of a "united government", which would be similar to interim government as demanded by the Maoists. According to Oli, such a united government, which would include the Maoists, would be responsible for holding general elections, which would elect a new government. This concept is certainly not on PM Deuba's agenda and can be interpreted as a communist ploy to seize power. After all, the NC party received an overwhelming majority in the elections, and it is doubtful that it would bow to the Maoist demands, who gained their present position through armed terror and intimidation. Legally, new general elections are not due till 2004 and it is doubtful that the government would agree to meet such Maoist demand.
The second meeting between the government and the Maoists took place on September 14 and 15, but ended in a deadlock. The Maoist negotiators have thus far shown an uncompromising attitude thus far in the negotiations. People are already expressing a view that an agreement cannot be reached. The acceptance of their key demands would represent a total capitulation of the government side. They want to transform Nepal into a Maoist People's Republic and they want it now. They must also be well aware that in case they do join the mainstream political system, they will have to put their political concept to a test by contesting the next general elections. If they do, they could never gain any significant nationwide public support in view of their past terrorist background. The Maoist politburo has been meeting in northern India during the first week of October in preparation for the third and possibly the last meeting with government. Although no date or venue has been confirmed, the Maoist negotiating team came to Kathmandu in mid October. They held a press conference at which they announced their new conditions for the third and possibly the last meeting with government negotiators. The government made no official response other than that the third meeting would be held after the current holiday season, which could mean no sooner than during the second half of November. During the Dasain holidays, the King proclaimed his only son Paras the Crown Prince. Although the King's action was legally correct, Paras is the most disliked among all members of the royal family due to his past behavior.
During the latter part of October there has been upsurge in sporadic Maoist violence. Recently, the rebels have been targeting activists belonging not only to the NC party, but also of the UML communist party. This has provoked sharp criticism of the Maoists by the UML leadership. The third round of talks with the Maoist insurgents finally took place on November 13, but ended in a deadlock. Although the Maoists have given up a demand for the formation of a republican state, they are now insisting on the abrogation of the present constitution and the election of a constituent assembly. However, in a new turn of the events, Prachanda, the Chairman of the underground Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has put off the 4th round of peace talks with the government for now. In the statement issued on November 21, Prachanda said that "the desire and efforts of the people and Maoist party to seek positive political outlet through peace talks have been made unsuccessful by imperialist and reactionary conspiracies". However, he added that his party would not completely close the doors for peace talks in the future. Just two days later, the Maoists declared a parallel "People's Revolutionary Government" and resumed terrorist attacks in many parts of the country. Any analysis of the public comments made by the Maoist negotiating team made it clear that they were not interested in joining the mainstream political system. Their only objective is to grab power without putting their popularity to test in general elections, something the present government seemed prepared to do.
On November 25, the Maoists unleashed well coordinated mayhem in more than twenty districts that has claimed hundreds of lives. Consequently, the government declared a state of emergency on November 26. The King also approved mobilization of the army and promulgated an ordinance declaring the cadres of CPN(Maoist) as terrorists. As was to be expected, there was no immediate spontaneous word of approval from the communist-leftist opposition. However, after holding two central committee meetings, the main opposition party CPN-UML expressed only a conditional approval of the emergency measures on November 29, but at the same time expressed its commitment to multi-party democracy. The only political party that fully supports the emergency measures is the right wing NDP party led by politicians from the Panchayat era. The Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party also expressed their support for the measures taken by the Nepalese government to restore peace and political stability in the country.
Barely one month after the declaration of the state of emergency, some leftist politicians have already been putting pressure on the government to end it soon. This is particularly true of the CPN/ML that has in the past openly supported the political objectives of the Maoists, although not their violent activities. However, the PM announced that the emergency measures are going to remain in effect till the Maoists have been fully disarmed. The CPN-ML party leadership has also been complaining that some of their "cadres" have been detained on suspicion of being engaged in Maoist activities. In spite the objections by the leftist politicians to the emergency measures, there is no doubt that the majority of the population supports them. The temporary restrictions imposed on personal freedom are a very small penalty to pay if the people indeed desire the restoration of tranquility in their country. The prolonged insurgency has had a profound impact on the country's economy and it is very surprising that none of the leftist parties acknowledged this nor has shown full support of the measures aimed at restoring peace in the country.
The new session of parliament started on February 10 and the government is seeking the extension of the emergency measures by three more months. After debating the issue for several days, the emergency measures were extended for three more months by a more than the required two-thirds majority. The massive Maoist attack on government forces in Achham district a few days earlier must have convinced the opposition politicians of the need to continue the emergency measures. Another new development that took place in mid February was the reunification of the dissident faction of the CPN/UML with the parent party. However, all forty dissident MPs lost their seats in the general elections, thus a reunification will not result in any gain for the main opposition party till the next general elections are held two years from now. The main opposition party CPN/UML is seeking the formation of a national government with participation of all political parties to oversee the next general elections. Since the Nepali Congress party holds a comfortable majority in the House, it will be up to its leadership to determine the issue. There is no unanimity of opinion within the ruling party how to deal with the current internal political crisis in the country.
Since the start of the second phase of the emergency, the lack of unity within the ruling party has surfaced. The PM's main adversary in the present state of affairs is the former PM G.P. Koirala, who is also the President of the party. There is a division of opinion as to right course to deal with the present situation in the country. Although the main opposition party CPN/UML supported the vote to extend the state of emergency, it tries to derive political mileage out of that concession. The opposition party is also pushing for an amendment to the present constitution and it has even found some politicians within the ruling party who support the notion. However, the judiciary is opposed to any tinkering with the constitution. A senior justice of the Supreme Court, who was member of the drafting committee of the present constitution called on those wanting to tinker with the constitution to first clearly identify its faults before going ahead with constitutional amendments: "Political parties should not raise the issue of constitutional amendments with a motive to gain power". The justice's remarks have drawn severe criticism from politicians of the main opposition party. Some political quarters have also suggested that the King should play an active role in efforts to find solutions to the country's major problems.
During the last week of March, the Chief of Army Staff made some critical remarks directed at politicians, who governed the country during the past twelve years since the restoration of multi-party democracy in Nepal. While addressing officers at a graduation ceremony, Gen. Rana asked a lot of tough questions: "The deteriorating situation of the country over the last few years has now reached a critical point…It is imperative to ask who led the country to this sorry situation?" Although the local politicians must take the blame for the birth of the Maoist problem, they immediately became critical of General Rana's remarks and boycotted three sessions of parliament demanding explanation from the PM who also holds the Defense portfolio. While the local politicians continue to squabble over petty issues, the Maoist terrorist activities continue unabated. During the first week of April, the government passed an Anti-terrorism Bill against the opposition of all leftist parties and RPP, the party of former Panchas. The local politics are politics of hypocrisy. Although the main opposition party CPN/UML endorsed the extension of the emergency measures, they walked out of the House when the voting on the Anti-terrorism Bill started. They also admitted that their support of the extension of the emergency measures was made only under the condition that the government would proceed with constitutional amendments during the current session of parliament.
In the middle of May, the PM traveled to USA to meet President George Bush and to Britain to meet British PM Tony Blair. The discussions in both countries focused on Nepal's war against domestic terrorism. Both countries pledged to support Nepal in its efforts to restore political stability in the country. When PM Deuba returned home, he called a meeting of all political parties to seek a six-month extension of the emergency measures. Already while he was abroad, the sentiments within his own party seemed to turn against the extension. He called a special session of parliament to seek approval of the extension of the emergency that was due to expire on May 25, however, from comments made by key political leaders both from his own party and the opposition, it became clear that the motion to extend the emergency would be defeated. PM Deuba then asked the King to dissolve the parliament and announced to call snap general elections on November 13. Since his own party holds a majority in the House and general elections were not due for two more years, the PM's decision was sharply criticized by his adversaries in his own party and led to his expulsion from the party for three years. The former PM G.P. Koirala even registered a writ petition with the Supreme Court seeking to void the dissolution of the House and the call for snap elections.
The recent events also make it clear that the two factions within the Nepali Congress cannot unite for the good of the party and the nation. Thus in addition to the Maoist problem, the country plunged into a deep internal political crisis. By contrast, the communist opposition welcomed the call for new general elections, because they expect to gain from NC's internal squabbles. Even if the NC wins the next vote, it is doubtful that they would again be able to form a majority government. On Monday May 27, the PM requested the King to extend the emergency by three months. Thus the emergency remains in effect till August 25. Since the dissolution of parliament and the re-imposition of the emergency measure took place in consultation with the King, PM's rival, former PM G.P. Koirala without naming the King viewed the events as a "grand design" and a possible prelude to end the present parliamentary system. His remarks were also immediately noticed and commented on by the main opposition communist party. During the first week of June, the central leadership of NC party also filed a writ petition seeking the reinstatement of parliament. Thus the NC party stands divided between two factions - one loyal to G.P. Koirala and the other to PM S.B. Deuba. The PM continues to stress his loyalty to the NC party, although he also made it clear that he cannot contest the election without belonging to a political party.
Although numerous NC leaders tried during the first two weeks of June to reconcile the differences between the Koirala and Deuba factions, all these efforts failed. Party president Koirala showed no willingness to soften his stance toward his rival. The PM called a general convention of the party for the week of June 16 to wrest the leadership of the party. One week prior to the convention, Koirala asked the PM to re-instate the parliament and call off the elections as a condition toward reconciliation, but the PM did not respond. On Tuesday June 18, the party formally split with the expulsion of the president Girija Prasad Koirala by an unanimous decision of the hastily convened general convention, party sources said. The convention also reinstated the party membership of the PM and elected him as the new party president. The next day, the new rebel leadership of the party visited the National Election Commission to register the name of PM Deuba as the new party president. While addressing the Midwestern Branch of the Press Union on July 2, G.P. Koirala stated that his faction has not yet decided whether it would contest the elections. The Election Commission is also still deliberating, which of the two factions should be recognized as the official Nepali Congress Party in the forthcoming elections. As previously announced, on August 6 the Supreme Court announced its verdict related to petitions for the re-instatement of parliament made by PM's political opponents. The SC unanimously dismissed all four writ petitions challenging the PM's legality to dissolve parliament. Thus the court's decision paves the way for the November 13 vote. The verdict also represents a blow for the NC faction led by former PM G. P. Koirala. The government also dissolved all local bodies, the municipal, district and village development committees when their mandate expired on July 16. Although the main opposition party has sought a one-year extension of their mandate, it was rejected by the government alleging that the previous local elections were rigged. The local elections were held during the tenure of CPN/UML government and two thirds of the elected representatives belonged to CPN/UML. The government has now applied to the Election Commission that the local elections be held during the current fiscal year.
It is quite obvious that the communists expect to gain from the split of the ruling party and see the elections as a strong opportunity of forming the next government. If the NC contests the elections as two different parties, it is doubtful that either faction would win a majority. Yet even if the communists should win the elections, it is also doubtful that they too would win enough seats to form a majority government. Thus if no party wins enough seats to form a majority government, there may be a repeat of the unstable political situation that followed the 1994 general elections. There no question that Nepal is currently passing through a most serious internal political crisis since the restoration of the multi-party political system in 1990. In their constant quest for power, the politicians failed focus their attention on the pressing needs of the nation. This quest for power has also been demonstrated by the fact that 102 political parties have registered with the National Election Commission to contest the November elections. This is more than double the number that contested the previous elections. A political party must win at least four percent of the popular vote to be officially recognized as a party.
The war of words between the two factions of the Nepali Congress party continues and both factions are claiming their right to the party flag and election symbol. Any efforts at reconciliation of the two factions failed. G.P. Koirala has been demanding the resignation of the PM as a precondition to possible reconciliation. On July 19, the Maoist leadership made a new offer for the resumption of the peace talks. This time, they have abandoned some of their key demand for a republican state made during the failed negotiations, and there is even an indication that they are now ready to join the mainstream political system and contest the November elections. The initial response among all major political parties to the latest Maoist initiative has been positive but rather muted. However, comments made by both the PM and the Home Minister that the Maoists must first disarm before the government agrees to the resumption of peace talks already cast some doubts on the possibility of a new dialogue. However, by the end of August, the opposition political parties and human rights activists have been putting pressure on the government to resume the peace talks. A general consensus is that only a negotiated settlement can restore peace in the country.
Since the emergency measures were lifted during the last week of August, the Maoists have been very active staging two major new attacks on government forces. This has even raised the question whether the elections can be held in the present political climate. There is also a strong consensus among all opposition parties and the Koirala faction of NC that the insurgency cannot be resolved militarily. On September 12, P.K. Dahal, the leader of the Maoist insurrection made another public statement declaring their willingness to call a cease-fire and resume the peace process. It is really surprising that the Deuba government is not able to come to grips with realities and to acknowledge that the only way to end the insurrection is through negotiations. On September 17 the PM suffered another setback when the Election Commission announced that it recognizes Nepali Congress as the party headed by former PM G.P. Koirala. The EC also stated that its decision is only "interim" and would be made final at a later date. At issue is the validity of the General Convention summoned by the PM that elected him party president to replace G.P. Koirala. The Koirala faction claims that 129 names among the 770 attending convention members were a fake. However, the EC has also granted PM Deuba seven days to register a new party and election symbol acceptable to the Commission. EC also allowed the Deuba faction to be recognized as different faction of the Nepali Congress. Judging by the utterances of the leaders of the two NC factions, there is no indication that the EC ruling would lead to possible reunification. The PM is even having a difficulty in reaching a consensus among his faction's central committee on the party's name, flag and election symbol that he has to present to the EC by September 23rd.
On September 22, the Maoist leadership made another appeal to the government to resume the peace process, their eighth in two months. They all seemed to have fallen on deaf ears, although all opposition parties as well as the mainstream NC party are in favor of the talks. The Maoists also called a general strike on November 13, the election day. The majority of leading politicians feel that it will be virtually impossible to hold the elections as planned unless both warring sides declare a cease-fire and resume the peace process. After all-party meetings that reviewed the worsening current political situation, all opposition parties concluded that the elections could not be held on the scheduled day. In a meeting with the PM, he also agreed and a six-months postponement would be announced before the end of the first week of October. All opposition parties also put pressure on the PM to renew the peace negotiations to resolve the insurgency.
The internal political crisis culminated during the first week of October. During the last week of September, the PM held consultations with leaders of the key political parties. There was a consensus that in view of the deteriorating law and order situation, it would not be possible to hold the elections as scheduled. The opposition parties suggested that the elections be postponed by six months. The PM agreed with that view and suggested that after consultation with his cabinet he would ask the King to postpone the elections. Although it seemed that not all cabinet members agreed with the delay of the elections, the PM had an audience with the King and proposed that the elections be postponed by fourteen months. Subsequently, for two days the King held meetings with leaders of political parties and other prominent people to deliberate his final decision in the matter, since according the Election Commissioners, the decision had to be made by Friday, October 4. At 10.45 PM on October, the King addressed the nation on Nepal TV to announce that he is assumed executive powers after dismissing PM Deuba for being "incompetent" and failing to hold elections as scheduled. The King also postponed the elections. The King will form a new government within five days by appointing people with a clean image including some not affiliated with political parties.
There has been a mixed reaction to the King's assumption of executive powers. Some welcomed the move and others did not. The most vocal reaction has been from the two factions of Nepali Congress with Deuba going as far as stating that the King's action was unconstitutional. The main opposition party CPN/UML is still analyzing the current situation. The former PM can only blame himself for the latest developments. He reached an agreement with the opposition to delay the elections by six months as requested by them. The agreement reached with the opposition was then discussed with his cabinet before presenting it formally to the King. Following that cabinet meeting was a sudden turnaround when the then Home Minister K.B. Khadka announced that the elections would be held on November 13. Then most probably out of his own impulse, the PM went to see the King to request postponement of the elections by 14 months. When this was made public, the opposition disagreed with such a long deferment. Subsequently, for two days the King discussed the current crisis with key political leaders and the judiciary.
There is no doubt that the King must have come to the conclusion that the Deuba government would not be able to resolve the current crisis and decided to give the country's political system a fresh start. However, the majority of political parties disagreed with King's action. Some legal experts also felt that the King's action was unconstitutional. Although the King asked the leaders of all political parties to provide names of their nominees with a clean record and who would not contest the elections to the new Council of Ministers. Instead, the six main leaders sought a meeting with the King as a group to discuss the formation of the new government, but there was no response from the King prior to his deadline for nominations. It came as a shock and a surprise when the King appointed as the PM Lokendra Bahadur Chand, who was the last PM of the Panchayat era at the time of the 1990 People's Movement and currently one of the principals in the NDP party of former Panchayati to head the new 9-member caretaker government. Following his appointment the new PM told the media that the intends to seek mediation with the Maoists to bring them into the political mainstream as one of his key objectives. The PM also stated that he would like to include people from other political parties in the new government after the current holiday season ends. However, they all declined their participation under his leadership. The six major parties in the dissolved parliament are demanding the dissolution of the present government and a formation of a new all-party government under article 128 of the constitution, but there has been no response from the King to their pleas. During the third week of November, the King expanded the government by adding eight new ministers and five assistant ministers. The expansion of the Council of Ministers has immediately widened the rift between the King and the political parties if the initial reaction of major political parties is any indication. Since the formation of the Chand government, there has been a constant pressure from all quarters to engage in a dialogue to resolve the Maoist insurgency. Even the government admits that the elections cannot be held unless peace and law and order has been restored.
Although the Chand government has been in office for two months now, it has not managed to establish a link of communication with the Maoist rebels. Any talk of the resumption of peace talks is just that. The Home Minister also stated that the government has not received any direct official peace offer from the rebels. The peace offer the Maoists made in the form of a press statement is not being considered as a genuine peace offer by the government. The mainstream political parties also continue to express their opposition to the royal power takeover, yet they cannot agree on a uniform approach that would resolve the current internal political crisis. Koirala continues to insist on the recall of parliament, his party has a majority in the House prior to its dissolution, and due to vertical split in the party, he is well aware that his party can no longer win a majority in the next elections. However, the younger generation NC leaders support an approach similar to that of the main opposition party. The main opposition party - CPN/UML - is opposed to the recall of parliament being well aware that NC being split into two parties, they stand a good chance to form the next government. Of course, everybody acknowledges that the elections cannot be held unless a peace is restored in the country.
The King appointed government has been in office for two months, but except for making speeches has accomplished very little. Efforts to resume talks with the Maoists are also progressing at a snail's pace. While the key political parties continue to oppose King's assumption of all executive powers, they are don't seem able to reach a uniform consensus how to best counter the King's move. During a recent public demonstration UML leader M.K. Nepal stated that the King cannot play a dual role of a politician and constitutional monarch at the same time, he has to chose one or the other. However, there has been no response from the king. The deposed PM Deuba has been rather low key, in one of his latest public statements he advocated the resumption of peace talks with the insurgents, something he has vehemently opposed while in office throughout the past year. He engaged the army to resolve the insurgency and although the army killed several thousand insurgents, the Maoists still rule in the countryside. He has also contracted to purchase 5,500 mini machine guns for the army from Belgium at a cost of Euro 25 million. The king appointed government, even after three months in office, has not yet established any contact with the Maoists in spite of their repeated offers for dialogue. The government's response to the latest Maoist peace initiative is its refusal to accept a peace offer sent to the media as a legitimate offer to the government. The government wants the Maoists to send an official peace offer directly to them. Thus the population has little to cheer about as it enters into the new year.
The Chand government has completed its first one hundred days in office, but there is a general consensus that its performance has been disappointing. The king dismissed the previous PM Deuba on the basis of incompetence, but the new PM Chand, the king's appointee after more than three months in office has not demonstrated higher level of competence than his predecessor. The main king's directives to the new government was to hold parliamentary elections as soon as possible and to restore law and order in the country. Neither of the two directives has been achieved. The government has not been able to set an election date, nor established a meaningful contact with the Maoists to get the peace negotiations started. The main political parties, with the exception of the NDP and NSP, the only two political parties participating in the king appointed government, refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the new government and also refuse to cooperate with it. They are now planning to launch a protest movement that may lead to confrontation with the King. Thus the internal political crisis created since the king assumed all executive powers continues unabated. Unexpectedly, there is even an disillusionment with the king appointed PM within his own party. On January 21, the NDP Central Working Committee gave the PM fifteen-day ultimatum to resign as a PM or leave the party.
However, there has been a dramatic turn of events during the last week of January. On January 27, the Norwegian envoy announced at a press conference that her country was considering withdrawal of development assistance to Nepal if the government does not resolve the internal political crisis soon. This might have been a signal to lackluster Chand government to finally take a positive step toward the resolution of the Maoist problem. Late in the evening on January 29, both the government and the Maoists have announced a cease-fire, when the government finally agreed to their pre-conditions for peace negotiations, which also include the formation of an interim government. Since the Maoist leadership earlier announced that they are prepared to join the political mainstream, they may put their political clout to test by contesting the general elections to be held this year. The cease-fire was welcomed by the business community tourist entrepreneurs, who suffered great losses due to the frequent general strikes, as well as the majority of political parties with the exception of the leaders of the two factions of Nepali Congress - Deuba and Koirala. At a public meeting, Koirala stated that the announcement of the cease-fire could be interpreted as a serious conspiracy against the political parties and speculated whether the government and the Maoists were coming closer to begin a campaign against political parties. Deuba on the other hand speculated that the cease-fire could be a ploy of the Maoists to consolidate their position and that the Maoists may have opted for peace talks after seeing that the government was consolidating its position through the import of modern weapons fromBelgium and America.
According to the Minister for Physical Planning and Work Col. Pun, who negotiated the cease-fire, the peace talks could start as early as during the first week of February. The CPN/Maoist politburo was also holding a meeting to formulate their modalities for the peace negotiations, which include roundtable meeting of all political stakeholders including the crown; election to a constituent assembly and the formation of an interim all-party government. The government has also sent a formal letter to the Maoists inviting them to start a dialogue, while the mainstream political parties continue to view the cease-fire agreement with suspicion, because they were not consulted by the government. The reason they were not consulted lies in the fact that by their own choice they declined to join the interim government. Any statements made by the Maoist leadership since the declaration of cease-fire give a clear indication that they too would like to see permanent peace in the country restored. The PM called an all-party meeting on February 17 to seek their input while the modalities and preparations for the actual talks are being formulated but all major parties represented in the dissolved House including his own RPP declined to participate. The UML, NC and several other leftist parties continue to question the legitimacy of the king appointed government. Even the media has been critical of the main political parties for putting their selfish partisan interests against the interests of the country by obstructing the peace initiatives.
There is no unanimity among all political parties as to the key items on the Maoist's agenda - round-table discussion of all political state holders including the king, elections to a constituent assembly and the formation of an all-party government. There is also no question that if the Maoists return to the political mainstream, it will be at the expense of all other political parties, especially the communists. The CPN/UML is well aware that the majority of Maoist cadres are their former followers. Although the interim government lacks the support of the large political parties, it is making a genuine effort to restore peace in the country. This was quite obvious from the number of concessions the government made in order to bring the Maoists to the negotiating table. It is now five months since the King assumed executive powers, yet the political parties have not reconciled themselves with the fact that the monarch is not going to respond to their demands. Prior to his accession to the throne, the King was a successful businessman and there is no doubt that by sidelining the political parties till the elections are held and appointing people with no political ambitions into an interim government was in the best interest in resolving the internal political crisis. Col. Pun, the government's peace talks coordinator announced that preliminary talks with the Maoists would start during the second week of March.
The PM called two meetings of all political parties to obtain their input while the talks modalities are formed, but all four main political parties declined to attend the first meeting and the NC and UML declined to also attend the second. In their view the present caretaker government is lacking the legitimacy to deal with the political crisis. Thus they have chosen to boycott the peace process. At the same time, the leaders of the two main political parties do not share the same views on how to resolve the current political impasse. Koirala is pushing for the restoration of the dissolved parliament, Madhav Nepal wants an all-party government. Both leader feel that they should be negotiating the peace with the Maoists. There can be no doubt that their views are politically motivated and by petty partisan motives, because they both must feel that they can derive some political mileage should they succeed in brokering the peace accord. During the second week of March, the king has been meeting individually with leaders of both large and small political parties, most probably to assess any options that may be in the best interest in resolving the crisis. He formed an interim government with people that have no political ambitions and who would be neutral when negotiating peace with the CPN Maoist. This of course would not be the case should the king hand the negotiation over to the politicians.
History has shown that during the past twelve years since the re-establishment of the multiparty system, the politicians were guided by self-interest and ignored the main issues faced by the population at large. The popularity of the Maoists among the rural population has not been achieved through any coercion, they were simply seen by the poorest segment of population as a better alternative to the corrupt political system in charge of the country's affairs. The past has also shown that there never been any unanimity among the political parties represented in the parliament, nor within the individual parties themselves. The past twelve years have seen splits within the three main political parties, and the internal disagreements are also surfacing since the king assumed all executive powers in October 2002. For instance, there is no unanimity within any of the three main political parties concerning the three Maoist conditions to form the basis for the peace negotiations: round-table conference of all political players including the crown, formations of an all-party government, election of a constituent assembly. Thus what should the king do, let the disagreeing politicians handle the peace process, or let people with no political ambitions to bring the peace to a positive conclusion? To any neutral observer the answer is obvious, but such is not the case with power hungry Nepalese politicians. It is also unfortunate that while the Maoists are anxious to get the peace process started, they are caught in the middle of the current political stalemate. Although the Maoists do not approve of the October 4 royal power takeover, the also do not share the views of political leaders on the future political structure of the country. They want to see sweeping changes to meet the economic needs of the population.
All members of the Maoist negotiating team arrived in Kathmandu and the informal talks followed by formal talks are to start during the first week of April. The political parties continue to express their opposition to the October 4, 2002 royal takeover. During the last ten days of March, the King made a pilgrimage visit to India, his second visit to that country in eight months. There may be more to that visit than what has been officially stated. On arrival there he immediately met with all key political figures, no doubt to get their reaction to the latest developments in Nepal. Early in April there is another civil reception planned for the King this time in western Nepal. Irrespective of whether the initiative was from the local people or the palace, such occasion provides the King with an opportunity to express his personal views on the current political situation in the country.
By mid-April, the government finally formed a peace negotiating team headed by the PM with five other ministers as members. The formal peace talks are expected to start during the third week of April. There has been no change in attitude of the political parties toward the king appointed government. They also continue their boycott of the government's peace initiatives and are planning various programs to show their opposition to the October 4 royal take over. Even G.P. Koirala, always a staunch monarchist in the past, as well as some other key NC leaders have been making public utterances in support of a republican state should the king continue to sideline the political parties. The ten-party leftist alliance joined by the Koirala led NC party plan to stage a mass protest rally against the king's October 4, 2002 assumption of all executive powers.
Although the mainstream political parties have been staging various protest activities during the month of May, the public at large has not shown a spontaneous support for their activities. It seems that people are more interested in seeing the peace process completed and normal conditions restored as quickly as possible. The king, through the media, has also expressed displeasure with the actions of the political parties and finally offered to meet political leaders collectively, something he has declined in the past. It took almost ten days for the politicians to respond. They want to meet the king "collectively with a package" how to resolve the current political crisis. Based on past statements, the package would be to form an all-party government with full executive powers. Although the NDP party, the third largest political party represented in the dissolved parliament, has officially acknowledged the legitimacy of the technocrat government appointed by the king, a considerable dissention seems to have surfaced within the party leadership. During the last week of May, the former party chairman S.B. Thapa publicly supported the stand of the five opposition parties concerning the formation of an all-party government with full executive powers. The CPN/Maoist has been maintaining a neutral position in the current political impasse. At the same time, the political parties intensified their agitation against the king. Since S.B. Thapa's comments came from a key leader of PM's own party, he resigned in order to pave a way toward national reconciliation.
The king accepted PM Chand's resignation and asked the leaders of all political parties to make a unanimous choice of the next PM. The king also met collectively with the leaders of all but one political party to ask each of the leaders to present their nominee for the next PM. It was perhaps somewhat naive of the king to expect them to make a unanimous choice of the nominee. There has never been any unanimity not only among political parties, but even within the parties themselves. Only the four parties currently engaged in agitation against the king suggested UML's M.K. Nepal as their choice. All other parties presented their own leaders as their choice. What the political parties sought and were expecting was the transfer executive powers to an all-party government with full executive powers under article 128 of the 1990 constitution. Whatever the king's motivation was, since the seven parties represented in the dissolved parliament did not present a unanimous choice of a nominee, the king appointed S.B. Thapa as the new PM under article 127 of the constitution with executive powers under article 35. This is of course not what the political parties were seeking, since it allows the king to exercise the ultimate executive power just as was the case before..
Following his appointment, PM Thapa sounded rather optimistic stating that the "king has cleared the issues raised by the political parties" with whom he will seek a dialogue to end the current crisis in the country. He added "the political issues have been cleared, this should be a basis for the start of national reconciliation. The royal message addressed the issues of government's executive powers and an all-party government. The political parties engaged in the anti-king agitation are going to meet on June 5 to appraise the current situation. However, PM Thapa's optimism might have been rather premature, since some prominent politicians have already expressed the view that the new government will be no different from the Chand government and thus their party will not participate in it. CPN/Maoist's Dr. Bhattarai also issued a warning to the political parties following PM Chand's resignation that whatever the king's action may be, it will not change the current status quo.
Three weeks after PM Thapa's appointment as PM, the five parties agitating against the King declined any participation in his government. Thus the impasse continues. They probably would have participated had the king appointed UML's M.K. Nepal as PM. However, the king's own choice of a politician from the Panchayat era and now a prominent member of the RPP party founded by former Panchas that is supporting active monarchy is not going to break the ongoing political stalemate. The five agitating parties are demanding the reinstatement of the legislature before they would consider joining Thapa's government. Whether Thapa's executive powers allow him to do so is doubtful. The ultimate executive power is still held by the king. Furthermore, the political parties also feel that any laws enacted by the provisional government through ordinance will not remain in effect unless they are approved by the legislature. This also applies to any peace accord the government may reach with the CPN/Maoist. The agitating parties have also been busy with drafting of changes to the present constitution that would curtail the king's powers so that the present situation could not be repeated in the future. They held two mock sessions of their representatives in the dissolved parliament to adopt a new political charter to be ratified in the next session of the House after the elections are held.
Among the highlights are that Nepal will be known as a secular state; the King's Advisory Council will be abrogated; limiting the royal title to king, queen and the crown prince; making public the property owned by the reigning monarch at regular intervals; end to the practice of the constitutional monarch to enact laws as part of the royal discretion. Moreover, they also expect to put the functioning of the Royal Palace under the domain of the Ministry of Royal Palace; equally far-reaching is the suggestion concerning secularization of the army, which so far identifies itself with the crown. The new arrangements, which would be enforced after the proposed amendment of the constitution, the army will be put strictly under the command of the government, and will be accountable to the people and the parliament; the commitment to amend constitution to pave a way for a referendum on issues ranging from constitutional to political and those of national importance, which aim at consolidating the sovereignty and power of the state inherent in the people; a new national anthem, which will reflect pride, national unity and patriotism. Apart from these major political and constitutional issues, the parties have also suggested drastic measures to bring about socio-economic transformation and a demand under which the parliament will be evolved along strong lines with huge powers. Notable in this context is the demand under which the parliament will be automatically revived in case elections cannot be held such as under present circumstances. The parties have also suggested measures to ameliorate the status of women, Dalits, members of the ethnic communities. Additional agenda includes following a non-aligned and UN friendly foreign policy, decentralization of governance and putting an end to hardships faced by women. The political parties are also determined to continue their agitation against active monarchy and plan to stage their "final and decisive action" against regression.
Although the final and decisive protest demonstrations against the king were scheduled to be launched on September 4, the government may prevent them from taking place in view of the imposition of new security measures imposed following consultation with the security forces following the Maoist's suspension of the cease-fire. It is difficult to predict the political developments in Nepal in the near future. Although the king has taken the initiative to reach a cease-fire accord with the rebels, he has since alienated both the political parties and the Maoists. The leadership of the military may also share in the blame for influencing the political developments in the country. The political parties are determined to go ahead with their "final" and decisive movement against what they call regression. Only the king knows whether he intentionally planned his two-week visit to England to be absent at a time when the country is in the midst of a major political crisis that the puppet Thapa government may not be able to resolve. Both the military leadership and the governments installed by the king have been portraying the king as a symbol of national unity, however, this has not been in evidence since the king assumed all executive powers in October 2002. It will now be up to the king to make the right move to save the country even at the expense of his personal ego. It was a wrong decision to sideline the major political parties representing ninety-five percent of the electorate. Even through some politicians may have committed some serious mistakes or became involved in corruption, in a truly democratic political system, the judgment of the politicians' performance should be made by the electorate when the elections are held and not by the king.
With the king now back in the country, he was expected to take new steps toward resolving the ongoing political stalemate, especially since the Thapa government failed to maintain the peace talks momentum. The rumors that the king was ready to seek reconciliation with the main political parties proved to be just that. In the course of their agitation against the king, the political parties passed an 18-point political agenda, which may be a stumbling block in the reconciliation with the king. The agenda aims to limit the king's executive powers, as well as putting the army fully under government's jurisdiction. These two points alone may be the main obstacles in reaching an accord with the king. The political agenda of the present Panchayati government presented during the failed peace talks made it very clear that the king is determined to assure that his present status cannot be put to test by the electorate. The king also seems to have an unwavering loyalty by the army leadership. Although the army leadership portrays the king as a symbol of national unity, it does not seem apparent since his assumption of all executive powers on October 4, 2002.
Thus the one year long political stalemate continues with more agitations being planned by the main political parties. They also seem to be committed to their 18-point agenda. Although the main political parties seem to be united in their opposition to the October 4 royal takeover, they also seem unable to agree on a uniform political agenda on how to resolve the current political stalemate. Although the Thapa government failed miserably during its 100 days in office, the PM has no intention to resign. Yet, it is unlikely that unless the main political parties become actively involved in efforts to bring the Maoists back to the negotiating table, finding a solution to the present political crisis will be almost impossible. The present king appointed Panchayati government lacks the confidence of both the main political parties as well as the Maoists. Nepal's special envoy Dr. Bekh Bahadur Thapa at the time of his departure for New York stated that foreign powers should not meddle into Nepal's political problems. The Maoist problem is Nepal's internal problem that should be resolved by the Nepalese themselves without any involvement by foreign countries. When Britain's special envoy Sir James made his third visit to Nepal in September in his capacity to seek solutions to Nepal's political problems, the king declined to meet him. The Maoists have also vehemently objected to any intervention by the two main powers, Britain and USA.
On the occasion of the Dasain holiday season, both the PM and the king have hinted that reinstatement of the dissolved parliament as demanded by the political parties would not resolve the current political crisis. Instead, general elections should be held as soon as possible. The political parties immediately branded those statements as a conspiracy to prolong PM Thapa's term of office. Everybody knows that unless a political accord has been reached with the Maoists, elections cannot be held because the greater part of rural Nepal is under their control. Former Speaker of the dissolved parliament also claimed that the government would in no way be able to hold parliamentary polls until and unless the Maoists are brought to the national political scene, in a report published on October 18. "I don't know what sort of election the Prime Minister is going to hold, the government is limited only to the headquarters. There is no government in the villages, how can the government hold elections in such a situation?" he said. The main political parties also pledge to continue their agitation against the October 4, 2002 royal takeover.
The king apparently expressed a desire to communicate with the agitating political parties during a two hour audience with SJB Rana, the president of the RPP party that took place late in October. During the discussion, Rana suggested to the King to open dialogue with the parties and to form a national government representing those parties, which had representation in the dissolved House of Representatives. With the major holidays now over, hopefully the king would come to realize that his experiments with running the country's affairs his own way were a failure and that the political parties should indeed be given the opportunity to become involved in resolving the current political crisis. While the political parties intend to continue their agitation, they have not been able to formulate a uniform political platform how to deal with the present situation. None of the two king appointed governments since he assumed all executive powers has been able to make any headway in resolving the current political crisis or in the peace talks. It is also doubtful that the present Thapa government could ever reach a peace accord with the Maoists, since his government is being seen as a representative of the old regressive Panchayat system.
The Maoists have also recently issued an appeal to political parties to hold discussions with them. In a most recent statement, the CPN/Maoist pledged " We request the pro-people political parties not to suspect our commitment to political pluralism," adding, " we want to compete with other political forces after the defeat of the reactionaries." The timing of the statement, said political analysts, is very significant since it came on the eve of the five political parties’ meeting at which they had discussed the possibility of forging alliance with the CPN (Maoist) if the latter convinced them of its commitment towards multiparty system. On November 17 Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala said the five parties are ready to work with the Maoists, providing such cooperation aims at safeguarding the constitutional rights of the people. "We are ready to join hands with the Maoists to consolidate our movement and to strengthen democracy, as long as the Maoists follow their leader's statement" Koirala said speaking at a program in Birgunj. There is also a consensus among the majority of observers that the insurgency cannot be resolved militarily but only through negotiations.
Major cracks have developed within the RPP(NDP) party. The party held central committee meeting to discuss the current political situation and the performance of the current RPP government. Two thirds of the committee members passed a resolution to seek the resignation of the PM, but the PM refused to step down. The general consensus is that the present political crisis cannot resolved without the participation of the main political parties and the central committee meeting of the PM's own party endorsed that view. The party president stated that he wants to form an all-party national government to seek solution to the current political situation. During the last week of November, CPN/UML leader M.K. Nepal traveled to India and held discussions with Maoist leaders. However, he did not succeed in bringing the rebels back to the negotiating table. The key issue are the elections to the constituent assembly. One major problem in the current situation is that the political parties cannot agree on a uniform agenda on how to deal with the present situation. Both NC and NC(D) and some other smaller parties are in favor of constituent assembly, but CPN/UML is not.
Some of the policies of the present government seem to be strongly influenced by the military leadership. The defense ministry is seeking recruitment of 8,000 additional men into the army. The country's budget is heavily committed to support the current trend of militarization in the country. But the donor community is opposed to the militarization trend. The United States is currently the only country that supports military solution to the insurgency. Representative of the European Community also stated that the insurgency cannot be resolved militarily, but only through negotiations. He also suggested that Nepal should seek external mediation to resolve the conflict. The same view was expressed by other members of the diplomatic community. It is also doubtful that the present government is capable to resolve the current political crisis without the involvement of the main political parties. The president of the PM's own political party that has nominated him to the king for the post asked the PM to resign so that a national government representing all political players could be formed to resolve the current political crisis, but he refused. The king has also been silent, he met with several politicians, but only those who served under the repressive Panchayat system, but none from among the agitating parties.
The main political parties continue their agitation what they call "against regression". In the second half of December the demonstrations picked up some momentum when the student unions joined the anti-king protests. The student were somewhat more vocal and chanted down with the king and pro-republican slogans. Some of the demonstrations took place in the vicinity of the royal palace. In response, the government arrested three student leaders, whom they subsequently charged with sedition against the state. Although this might have been intended as deterrent to demonstrations, it backfired and the demonstration escalated and became more violent. Charging the student leaders with sedition also has provoked strong protests from the political parties and the government backed down and released the students leaders after they pledged in court their support for constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. Releasing the student leaders also has not stopped the student demonstrations, nor the chanting of anti-king and pro-republican slogans. CPN/UML's leader Kumar Nepal while addressing a party gathering said "if the king continues to intervene in politics, the people may opt for republican state." Even the cadres of Nepali Congress, a party with liberal policies, have urged party president G.P. Koirala during his recent address to support the establishment of a republican state. For Nepal, the second poorest country in the world, the monarchy represents a large expenditure. In a local periodical, a writer commented that it is the die-hard monarchists who are preparing the stage for the rise of republicanism. A major hike in the royal household budget, a fancy for luxury cars and continuing penchant for felicitation ceremonies can all be seen as symptomatic of an institution that seems to crave unnecessary controversy. The royal household budget used to be approved by parliament. After the king assumed all executive powers, through ordinance the king increased the house hold budget from RS 118 million (US $1,6 million) to RS 700 (US $9.6 million). The palace is also importing he issued an ordinance to increase the royal household allowance by 330 from Rs 118 million (US $1.6 million) to Rs 384 million (US $5.2). The palace is also importing a fleet of luxury cars including a Rolls Royce and a Jaguar worth RS 142 million (US $1.94 million), a very insensitive decision made at a time when the country is in an economic mess.
The students continue their anti-king demonstrations and pledge to continue their "anti-regression" protests in spite of brutal intervention by the police. During the first week of January, the king held discussions with all political leaders trying to seek an outlet to the current political turmoil in the country. The talks might have been prompted by the strong anti-monarchy and pro-republican sentiments by the agitating students. During the discussions, the king presented to all leaders his seven point agenda "National consensus, peace and security, corruption control, people-oriented administration, national solidarity, free and fair elections and an all-party government" urging all leaders to reach a common understanding on it. Only the leader of the RPP party observed the king's agenda as positive and worthy of pursuit. The leaders of other political parties questioned king's motive to hold such meetings. CPN/UML's M.K. Nepal said that the king time and again deceived the political parties in the past and the audiences might be another attempt to divide the parties than finding a solution to political stalemate in the country. CPN/UML leader J.N. Khanal claimed that the king was keen on seeing the political parties to bridge the gap after coming to a consensus among them.
There is no doubt that the king wants the political parties to come up with a uniform agenda on how to address the present situation in the country. This may be one major stumbling block, since each agitating party has it's own agenda. NC's G.P. Koirala insists on the restoration of the dissolved legislature; CPN/UML's M.K. Nepal sees no relevance in house restoration, since it's mandate would end in April and instead he suggested a round-table conference and the formation of an all-party government to draft a new constitution. The proposal for drafting a new constitution and its ratification by a new parliament is seen by CPN/UML's key leader as the only viable option between Maoists' rigid demand for constituent assembly elections and king's stance for only minor amendments. Of course, in order to hold elections, the government first would have to reach a peace accord with the Maoists. With eighty percent of rural Nepal under their control, it is unthinkable to hold elections without approval.
The student demonstration continue with the students expressing anti-monarchy and pro-republican sentiments. The students representing seven student organizations also began public hearings on monarchy at Tri Chandra College. The majority of the speakers who addressed the hearing said that monarchy lost its relevance to survive on the taxes paid by the people. The pro-republican sentiments also seem to have shifted into CPN/UML's central committee with its central members putting pressure on the party to give up its commitment to constitutional monarchy in support of the sentiments expressed by the students in the streets. The majority of members in the current ongoing central committee meeting also pressed for constituent assembly elections to formulate a new constitution. The members also strongly demanded that the party endorses the term "constituent assembly elections to redraft the new constitution. In view of the current developments, there is no doubt that the longer the king maintains his tight grip on the country's politics may ultimately be very damaging to the institution of monarchy.
The leadership ultimately decided that republicanism should not be the party's immediate objective at this time. Instead, the party approved a nine-point agenda to end the political crisis. The agenda proposes to form an all-party government of the parties that were represented in the dissolved House. It stresses that both warring sides must immediately declare a cease-fire in the country and must follow a code of conduct. Following an agreement with the rebels, the government would call a round-table conference including all political power centres in the country. The party remains open to either amend the present constitution or draft a new one if necessary to implement the agendas agreed on by the 'round table'. One standing committee informed that the party remains open on the issues of republic and constituent assembly elections should the king refuse to reconcile with the political parties. The CPN/UML's proposal would be an addition to the 18-point progressive agenda agreed upon by all agitating political parties. One big problem is that in the sixteen months since the king assumed executive powers, the agitating parties have not been able to reach a unanimous consensus on how to resolve the political crisis. This was the very point the king brought up in his latest talk with the Speaker of the dissolved House. No political party has so far expressed its support for UML's agenda and NC leader Koirala has already dismissed it.
On January 26, the king gave an exclusive interview to Time magazine and his comments immediately brought a strong reaction from the leaders of the two largest political parties. When asked about his views on the students' protests expressing pro-republican sentiments and whether those were also the sentiments of the public, the king replied "my government has advised me that these protests might be only pressure tactics." At the same time, the king said that he was committed to constitutional monarchy and multiparty political system, but with the continuation of his "constructive role", which he is playing now. When asked to define the "constructive role", the king indicated that the 21st century monarch should have a role like that. He also hastened to add that in his view such a role could not be defined an "active" one. "The days of royalty being seen and not heard are over. We are in the 21st century. It's not that I am taking an active role. I see it as a constructive role. The king further said he is "accountable" to the people and that he was "sorry" if the political parties did not want to be. The king also put the blame for the current crisis squarely on the political parties. "Much of the ills we have suffered is not because of the democratic political system, it's because of the 'actors' in the system. All I'm saying is stop saying 'me'. Say 'us.' Stop saying 'party.' Say 'people'. 'National consensus' would end the deadlock. Recently, I also met all the political leaders and I have asked them to put the nation and the people first and to come to me with a government made up of all the parties. That is my roadmap, my agenda." In response to a query what the king would do if the parties refuse to accept his roadmap, the king said, "That means they want to play musical chairs in government. But I think, they are realizing that I am serious." On Maoist problem, the king accused former governments of lacking 'foresight' and 'tactfulness' to address the issues of poverty of the common man, which gradually gave birth to the insurgency, or they addressed them in such an inhuman way that those areas developed into the hotspots we have today. On the much-talked-about "Royal takeover of October 4", the king fully defended it, saying, it was his duty to save the Constitution, "I thought it was my constitutional obligation; otherwise the constitution was going to be as good as dead. On allegations that Nepal was inching towards becoming a "failed" nation, the King dismissed it, saying, it was only a 'cliché' it is not happening. "Yes there is a vacuum a political vacuum" king Gyanendra said.
The reaction of the major political parties to the king's views expressed to Time/Asia magazine was generally negative. The political parties represented in the dissolved parliament said that king Gyanendra's interview has further escalated mistrust and conflict between parties and the king. The king's comments obviously seemed to suggest that he redefined the definition of constitutional monarchy in Nepal with his intent to continue his "constructive role" in country's politics, which he is playing now. A joint meeting of the five agitating parties concluded that king's comments gave impression of veiled interest to act as an active monarch by suspending people's sovereign right attained in 1990. "It is a conspiracy to impose autocratic rule in the country," added the joint meeting. In a press statement issued by the parties after the meeting has called upon all concerned to make the movement against regression more intensive and effective. The students continue their agitation and forums on the 'relevance of monarchy in Nepal'. At the same time the government has become more repressive by making every effort to prevent the forums from taking place by arresting large number of agitating students and used massive force to disrupt the protest of five agitating political parties. Dozens of leaders have been arrested while many were hurt as police used water cannon and several rounds of tear gas cells to disrupt the programs that, by and large, were peaceful. UML Standing Committee member Amrit Bohara said that the government would have to pay a heavy price for what it has done to disrupt peaceful protests. “People will not remain mum, revenge is certain,” he added.
During February the government staged another civic reception in Nepalgunj for the king. Such occasions provide the king with the opportunity to present his personal political views to the people. The response to king's speech among all political except RPP, whose president declined to comment, has been negative. Former PM Deuba said that the king's address clearly shows that he wants to establish 'controlled democracy' in the country. Speaking to journalists, Deuba said "king has mentioned the establishment of pro-public democracy, but the word democracy doesn't need any 'adjective'. Although the five agitation parties plan a new series of protests, various student leaders of mainstream political parties have hinted that the ongoing movement against regression was weak due to lack of a common agenda and a clear goal of the movement and that a general referendum should be the demand of all parties. UML's M.K. Nepal while expressing criticism over king's remarks during his civic reception reiterated his party’s old demand for an all-party government, Nepal said: “If the king wants a solution to the political crisis, he must form an all-party government.” The UML leader also claimed that the parties were not concentrated on partisan interests “all we want is democracy and political freedom,” he said.
In private meetings with some leading Panchas in Nepalgunj, the king gave every indication that he was not going to give in to pressure by the political parties, not to replacing the present hard-line Panchayati government with an all-party government with a mandate to resolve the present political crisis. The king seems to want to rule the country till a new government has been elected. The King also issued a nine-point directive to the government, one of them being to hold general elections at the earliest. This has immediately prompted the PM to announce that elections would be held during October-November. Most observers feel that the elections may not be possible in the present situation with the government being in control only in urban centres and district headquarters and the rebels controlling all rural areas. If the government does go ahead with the elections, with the absence of rural votes where the majority of the population lives, the results would hardly be representative. The government is organizing two more civic receptions for the king in the near future, something the political parties dismiss as a waste of public funds. The US Ambassador has also recently expressed his country's concern about the fact that Nepal has been without an elected government for a long time. This might have also put pressure on the government stage the elections come what may.
G.P. Koirala made an appeal to the breakaway NC faction lead by former PM Deuba for re-unification. With the party currently split, it is doubtful that the Nepali Congress party could ever dominate the country's politics. However, the talks failed due to Koirala's refusal to recognize the breakaway faction as a legitimate political party. M.K. Nepal's recent European tour was also less than what he has expected. Although the UML is a moderate left of center political party, overseas the its image is tarnished because it continues to call itself a Marxist-Leninist Communist party. The anti-regression movement of the five-party alliance has accomplished nothing, since the king intends to continue his active role at least till a new government has been elected.
During the last week of March, Sir James, the UK Special Envoy for Nepal held talks with the key political players including the king. He expressed apprehension about a scenario where elections are held without creating the required environment for the participation of political parties in such polls “if the environment is not right, the outcome of such an election is unlikely to be credible and acceptable to Nepalis. In such a situation, there could be further tensions. This also underlines the need for a multi-party government and a successful peace process said the envoy, who helps to co-ordinate British support for peace and development in Nepal. He also reiterated the need for the formation of a broad-based all-party government enjoying wide support and exercising legislative powers, because a negotiated settlement to the conflict will require the involvement of all political players. While the government acknowledged the envoy's comments, it already became obvious from the comments made on March 27 by the Home Minister Kamal Thapa, that the government intends to continue on its present hard-line course. The Home Minister also ruled out any possibility of peace talks resumption at the present time. He also stated that PM Thapa has been making a great effort to form an all-party government, during the past eighteen months, but the political parties were not prepared to serve as puppets in the King's government led by former Panchas.
One day later, the government staged another felicitation for the king in the resort town of Pokhara in central Nepal. The king's speech was similar to those given during previous felicitations. Although the king dwelled on the importance of the institution of monarchy "which is guided by popular aspirations, ardently safeguarding the interests of the people and the nation; upholding this glorious tradition is our commitment. History is testimony to the strong bond between the king and the people." Throughout the speech there was no mention of constitutional monarchy, just a brief reference to multiparty democracy, "which can be consolidated and made meaningful only if national politics, guided by the people's aspirations and dedicated to their welfare, promote peace, harmony and stability." The king wants to see the general elections held during 2004, so that he can pass the executive powers to the elected government. The king's speech was a clear indication that he intends to keep the present government in office till a new government has been elected.
As was to be expected, the political parties were not impressed with the king' speech and termed it's content as "meaningless" and the call for polls as unrealistic. The leaders also felt the king failed to address the Maoist insurrection that has affected every aspect of life in the country. NSPP leader felt that the king could be trying to go for a lengthy electoral process for ulterior reasons, while major parties are left out of the interim government. In a response to criticism of planning the elections during the current political crisis, the Minister Kamal Thapa stated that the poll haste is the outcome of non-cooperation by the parties: "Had they cooperated with the government, the election could have been delayed on consensus." Although he ruled out the possibility of peace talks resumption, paradoxically, he called on the Maoists to make use of the opportunity that the elections are presenting if they want to resolve the country's crisis through negotiations. He said "the government wants the Maoists to participate in the elections, but if they are not ready at present, then they should prove that they are in favor of peace by declaring a cease-fire during the elections" adding "should the Maoists utilize this opportunity, then there will be a moral pressure on the state". The Minister also urged the civil society, intellectuals and media persons to create such an environment. Since the Minister earlier ruled out any possibility of peace talks, it is rather naive of him to expect the rebels to show magnanimity toward the government
The sidelined political parties are planning new mass anti-regression demonstration and are asking their cadres from all districts to participate. NC president Koirala also stated that he would soon initiate a dialog with CPN/Maoist in a bid to resolve the present crisis through a political approach that would be acceptable to all. He also welcomed UN Secretary General's latest appeal to the government and the rebels to resume the political process and the offer of UN assistance in mediation "It is natural in the present situation and a commendable move." He flayed the government of overtly rejecting the proposal instead of holding discussions on the modalities of possible UN assistance in conflict mediation.
The latest "definitive" agitation against regression by five-party alliance on the very first day met with brutal reprisals by the police beating the protesters with batons. Many prominent political leaders suffered minor injuries. On the second day of the protests, the government imposed a ban throughout the Kathmandu valley on gatherings of more than five people by invoking some laws from the past. This was obviously aimed at ending the protest demonstrations. In spite of the ban, the demonstrations continued with hundreds of demonstrators being arrested and kept in detention. Similar protests also started in other towns and were. The king who was on a PR tour of several districts in western Nepal returned to Kathmandu on April 10. This was the latest in a series "felicitations" staged by his royal government. One diplomat observed that these royal visits under a heavy security umbrella, seem intended to show that the king can travel to all parts of the country, even to rebel strongholds. According to Kathmandu based diplomats and other political observers, these visits are considered very damaging and counter-productive. Besides being big drain on the national budget, the royal visits also require redeployment of security forces to provide protection to the king, thereby leaving other parts of the country vulnerable to rebel attacks. However, there is a strong feeling that the king may not transfer executive power to the political parties in spite of the strong anti-king protests in the streets.
The king's plan to hold elections has been subjected to strong criticism not only by the political parties, but by the diplomatic missions, civil rights groups and others as well. According to general informed opinion, free and fair elections cannot be held unless an agreement has been reached with the rebels first. Of course, one has to also recognize the fact that the present king's government could not possibly reach peace accord with the rebels, even though the rebels have softened their stance since the failed peace talks with the Deuba government, unless UN or all mainstream political parties represented in the dissolved parliament took part in the peace negotiations.
Throughout the month of April, the five-party alliance staged a massive anti-regression demonstrations in Ratna park and the streets of Kathmandu. The government's response was the imposition of a restrictive order that banned all public gatherings of more than five people throughout the Kathmandu valley. The demonstrators disobeyed the order and hundreds of them including key political leaders were arrested daily. It took three-weeks before the king finally took notice and initiated interviews with political leaders, mostly those from the Panchayat era. The leaders if the five parties engaged in the current agitation declined to meet the king unless he fulfills certain conditions - dismissal of the Thapa government and revoking of the prohibitory order on peaceful demonstrations. The only prominent leader to meet the king was Sher Bahadur Deuba. Following Deuba's meeting with the king, there was some speculation that he may be re-appointed as a PM. CPN-UML stated that the five-party alliance would back Deuba as PM providing he would agree to uphold the 18-point agenda of the alliance. However, NC said that their support to Deuba would depend on the way he would stage a comeback. According to the new arrangement, Deuba would lead the government with three deputy prime ministers - one each from CPN-UML, RPP and NSP with king's nominees as members, sources said.
However, constitutional law experts argue that Deuba's appointment as a PM would also be done as per the provision of Article 127 of the constitution, which would make his government similar to the present one and would not be a correction of king's October 4, 2002 move but a political gimmick that would have no better legal authority than the present Thapa government and the use of the word 'reinstatement of the Deuba government' is not correct in legal terms. Although Article 127 does not empower the king to appoint prime ministers, the king has set a new precedent by appointing prime ministers under this Article, and any such appointees, in the absence of parliament, will be responsible to the King and not to the sovereign people. Unless the formation of a new House of Representatives through elections takes place, the October 4 mistake cannot be corrected constitutionally. Deuba also admitted that it was his "fault" in dissolving parliament two years ago.
Due to pressure from all political parties including his own, PM Thapa resigned on May 7. The king accepted the resignation and immediately announced that he was on the lookout for a new PM "with a clean record". The reaction of among the leaders of the five-party alliance was that it was not up to the king to determine a person's clean record. Thus although the political parties welcomed PM Thapa's resignation, they were also apprehensive of king's next moves. The Maoist leadership also issued a warning to the political parties not to fall into another palace trap. Although all political parties support the formation of an all-party government, they also want to be given full executive powers. What is lacking at this juncture is a mutual trust between the king and political parties. The king held a number of individual audiences with political personalities including NC(D) and RPP that only recently joined the street demonstration against regression. However, the leaders of the five-party alliance turned down the palace invitations to meet the king individually, as has been the king's policy in the past. They issued a public statement that they would only meet the king jointly.
The king did grant a collective audience to the leaders of the five-party alliance. Although they have been agitating against regression for more than a year, they have not been able to formulate a uniform agenda on how to address the political crisis, nor could they agree on a unanimous choice of their candidate for the post of PM. Although prior to Thapa's appointment their consensus candidate was M. K. Nepal, the NC leaders now felt that the time and situation have changed and they were no longer bound to follow last year's decision. NC's Dr. R.S. Mahat said that the parties could suggest the names of five candidates to the king. On May 31 the king sent a notice to the political parties to suggest their candidate for the post of PM, and although the parties subsequently discussed the issue for more than three hours, no unanimous agreement was reached and ultimately they ignored the king's call. On Wednesday morning, May 3 the king appointed S.B. Deuba as the new PM. Except for the RPP party, his appointment received a mixed reaction from the leaders of the five-party alliance. Deuba told reporters "The King had ousted my government. My appointment as the PM, shows that he has reinstated it." he said. However, this is not entirely true, since his appointment as PM was made under the Article 127 of the Constitution, which represents the same kind of appointment as was the case with Chand and Thapa. In reality, with any PM appointed under Article 127, the ultimate sovereignty remains with the king and not with the people, something that the agitating parties were opposed to.
As was to be expected, G.P. Koirala immediately stated that under no circumstances would his party join the government because it lacked legitimacy. It is paradoxical that at the time the king asked the political parties to suggest a consensus prime ministerial candidate to succeed L. B. Chand, the five-party alliance nominated M.K. Nepal being fully aware that the appointment would be made under Article 127 as was the case with L.B. Chand. At that time, there was no hint of Koirala NC not joining the government should the king have appointed M.K. Nepal instead of S.B. Thapa. Koirala's hasty rejection of joining the Deuba's government was obviously based on personal prejudice. When the five-party alliance debated the issue of nominating a consensus candidate to succeed S.B. Thapa, it was again Koirala who argued that the only was the current crisis could be resolved by re-instating the dissolved House of Representatives, something that was not legally possible. Koirala ultimately walked out of the debate letting the deadline for nominations set by the palace pass. Koirala's motivation for blocking M.K. Nepal's nomination as the alliance's consensus candidate might be interpreted as his constant quest for power. Since NC had a commanding majority in the dissolved House, it's re-instatement would assure Koirala's election as a PM.
During the previous two tenures, Deuba proved to be a rather mediocre Prime Minister and partially responsible for the crisis faced by the country. Judging by his initial public utterances, it is doubtful that he is capable to resolve the current crisis unless other political parties and especially the UML join his government. Immediately following his appointment speaking outside the royal palace, Deuba said, "I have been re-instated and my next move will be to hold elections," This was a rather naive statement, since it is a public knowledge that elections cannot be held unless peace is first restored in the country. At a press conference following his appointment Deuba ruled out elections to constituent assembly, although following his dismissal as PM he pledged support for constituent assembly elections. When the press queried the change in his stand on the issue, he replied "I was a party leader then, now I am a Prime Minister" . Padma Ratna Tuladhar, one of the two peace talks facilitators publicly condemned Deuba's comments by ignoring the current crisis and that his anti-constituent assembly comments and the declaration to hold elections by April 2005 annoyed the Maoists and practically closed the door on future peace talks.
The CPN-UML's sixth central committee authorized the standing committee to make the final decision on whether to join the Deuba government or not. The leaders said that the party would join the government only after reaching an understanding on a common minimum program (CMP) with the latter. The meeting called upon the NC(D) and other parliamentary forces to evolve a CMP to find a solution to the Maoist insurgency and pave the way for holding general elections. The proposal, among others, has appealed to the government and the Maoists to be prepared for a cease-fire and peace talks on the basis of mutual respect, understanding and co-existence. After the meeting, party spokesperson Pradeep Nepal told journalists that his party has drawn the government's attention toward 51 points to develop a CMP. "We have proposed to the government that the latter should be prepared to go to the extent of making a new constitution through elections of a constituent assembly to restore peace," he said, adding, "We have narrowed down the gaps with the government on major issues, which have been raised in PM's policy speech. We will be holding a dialogue with the government in a positive manner before we join the government" Nepal said. The RPP party also intends to hold a dialogue with the government on RPP's stance on the formation of an all-party government and on accepting the party's policies and programs, proportional participation in the government and drafting of a new constitution among others.
In addition to an agreement on the 51-point Common Minimum Program, the CPN-UML also said it would not join the Deuba government unless the Government’s Work Performance Regulations are revoked or, at least, amended. Under the WPR, which was passed by ordinance by the Chand government, the government cannot make any major decisions without prior consultations and approval of the king. At a face-to-face program organized by Reporters’ Club Nepal, UML spokesperson Pradeep Nepal said the party was still scrutinizing the government’s moves. “If the Deuba government fails to revoke or amend the Government’s Work Performance Regulations, there is no question of joining the government,” he declared, adding, “It is necessary to restore the executive powers in the Council of Ministers.” The CPN-UML was of the view that Deuba’s re-appointment was only a partial reinstatement of the government that was ousted on October 4, 2002. The UML is also exploring ways how the new political change can be utilized for the benefit of the people. Nepal also made it a point to claim that UML was wise enough to back out of the street protests as it recognized the designs of power-hungry Nepali Congress party lead by G.P. Koirala.
PM Deuba brought UML's conditions to king's attention and the king agreed to restore the executive powers of the Council of Ministers. This latest development for UML to join the government once an agreement on the CMP has been reached. The RPP that also agreed to join the government presented its 32-point CMP. Unlike the Thapa faction of the RPP, the Rana faction is supportive of the drafting of new constitution. The UML has left all options open including elections to constituent assembly, the main stumbling issue in reaching an accord with the CPN-Maoist. The UML's main objectives are the resumption of the peace process, a round table conference and the formation of an all-party government that would include the Maoists. The formation of the new multi-party government is expected to take place before the end of June. In spite of the restoration of government's executive powers, the NC led by Koirala decided not to join the government led by Koirala's rival Deuba. Although Deuba again made a re-unification offer to Koirala, the latter declined. CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal said Sher Bahadur Deuba should not be in power for a long time. “Deuba must also go very soon,” Nepal said while speaking at a program organized by the party on June 19. After Deuba, he said, it was UML’s turn as the largest political party to rule the country. Nepal claimed that the Deuba government would surely tumble without the UML's support. “If the UML denies support, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party would also not join the government,” he maintained adding, “then the idea of an all-party will automatically fall flat.” Nepal also made a point that his party was not hastening to join the government. He said, “We believe the present crisis can be solved only through national consensus. Being in government is not enough to achieve that goal.”
One month after being appointed PM, Deuba still has not been able to form a government. The whole month of June was devoted to discussions of the three parties' CMP. The agreement was finally reached on the last day of June and the CMP was made public. The highlights are measures to improve political institutions, upliftment of country's economy and a 15-point social agenda to uplift poor and downtrodden communities. Although the CMP has outlined the policy programs of the government, the alliance is silent on the policy to be adopted when it comes to open talks aimed at finding a solution to the Maoist insurgency. But as Deuba and other leaders said at a press conference, the agenda for the peace process would be worked out once the government opens talks with the rebels. "Nothing concrete and cogent can be said about the workplan concerning conflict resolution until we talk to the rebel leadership" Deuba said. He, however, reiterated that his government would be flexible to the point required. But he gave no indication when the peace process would begin. CPN-UML leader Madhav K. Nepal said that the degree of flexibility would be formulated in due course. Nepal Sadbhavana Party leader Mandal claimed that the new government was certainly as sovereign any government can be; RPP leader Rana said the instance of four parties coming together to form a government was partial success in the task of bringing constitutional forces together. He also added that the Deuba government should try to bring in other parties from the dissolved parliament. The alliance is still to reach an agreement over allocation of ministerial berths.
During the last week of June, G.P. Koirala left for a week-long visit to India, mainly for medical checkup but also to meet government leaders to bring them up to date on his own views of the current political situation in Nepal. In the early part of June, Koirala stated that he would bring the Maoists into the political mainstream, and there was a speculation whether he also intended to meet rebel leadership while in India in spite of his denial at the time of his departure. Although Koirala's party intends to continue anti-regression agitation, it is doubtful that his party's policies would be acceptable to the rebels. He never expressed support for a round table conference, all-party government and elections to a constituent assembly. Still today, although the dissolved parliament's mandate expired in April, Koirala and his political lieutenants keep harking about the restoration of the house in which his party had a commanding majority. It is quite obvious that the politically ambitious Koirala want to be in charge. This became very clear when he blocked the five-party alliance's decision to recommend M.K. Nepal as the alliance's consensus PM candidate, thus making way for Deuba's appointment. Following Koirala's return to Nepal, although he denied meeting Maoist leadership during his India visit, in a brief conversation with media people he said that he already initiated talks with the Maoists to restore peace in the country. Whether this is possible without government's participation remains to be seen.
After 33 days of negotiations with the political parties willing to join his government, Deuba has finally formed a rather large 31-member cabinet. It will be interesting to observe whether Deuba's four-party government will be able to work constructively, based on the participating parties’ sharply contrasting political orientations. Nepal Sadbhavana and RPP are extreme right, Deuba's NC-D right of center and CPN-UML is left. UML's Bharat Mohan Adhikary became the Deputy PM and finance minister. The leaders of the four agitating parties flayed the government for being accountable to the king and not the people. This fact became quite visible when the DPM announced some of the forthcoming budget projections and issues relating to possible peace negotiations. Prior to joining the government, UML's leadership was critical of the sharp increase in the royal household budget made by the Chand government and pledged to trim it down from the current Rs 770 million to the original Rs 110 million. UML was also critical of the high defense budget. UML's M.K. Nepal also stated that the government should declare unilateral cease-fire within hours of its formation. During his first public statement UML's deputy PM ruled out any cut in the budget allocated to the royal palace. He also ruled out any cut in the defense budget and indicated that it may actually increase in the new budget even as he claimed that the upcoming budget would be fully dedicated to peace efforts. The DPM also ruled out any immediate chances of the government announcing unilateral cease-fire "since the government has not debated or decided on the issue as yet".
The agitating parties were also critical of the government's Common Minimum Program (CMP). NC's leader Arjun Narsingh KC said that the CMP is "vague and deceiving" and although there are "high sounding" agendas, the CMP would not meet the aspirations of the people. Furthermore, the issue of constituent assembly, the key demand of the Maoists remained untouched. He said that NC is always open to a constituent assembly and referendum and that it should be decided on in a free and fair manner. KC also predicted that the Deuba government would collapse within six months and reasoned "that since the government has been formed with parties having different ideologies, the chances of cohesion among the partners was very slim". NSP(Anandidevi)'s Rajendra Mahato criticized the government for its "cowardice" by failing to include the issue of constituent assembly in the CMP by adding "we are open for a constituent assembly as well as a referendum," and argued that resolving the current crisis without the option of constituent assembly was almost impossible. Human rights activist and two-time member of the mediators' team in the previous governments-Maoist peace talks Padma Ratna Tuladhar also accused the PM of not showing any seriousness toward a new round of peace talks with the Maoists nor creating a suitable environment for talks. "In the previous talks, the Maoists were ready to accept monarchy but the government either misunderstood it or did not want it to happen. It could have been a historic achievement had it seized the opportunity and brought the peace talks to a positive conclusion at that point."
The Rebel leadership also expressed their apprehension of the new government in spite of CPN-UML's participation and the failure of the previous Deuba and Thapa governments to show flexible approach in previous peace negotiations. The government of PM Deuba does not have the power to find a peaceful and progressive political way out of the current crisis because it is the "continuation of the old regime" Maoist chairman Prachanda said on July 1. The Maoist leader even caused the CPN-UML leadership of betraying the people's democratic aspirations by becoming a slave of autocracy. On July 7, Bam Dev Chhetri, a senior member of the Maoist Central Committee told AFP by telephone "We are ready to announce a cease-fire and hold dialogue with the present government but only if it is ready for constituent assembly elections under the aegis of the United Nations." Chhetri also said that the Maoists would not disarm during the negotiations, as it "would be tantamount to a surrender." On July 20, CPN-Maoist chairman Prachanda in a statement ruled out cease-fire or resumption of the peace process unless the government accepts their key condition - constituent assembly elections under the aegis of the UN.
Although the Deuba government has been in office for almost three months, it has not taken any initiative toward the resumption of the peace process. The PM also made a some highly controversial comments related to the possible resumption of the peace talks. One of his remarks that there will be no compromise on constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy made it clear that his position is basically the same as during his earlier tenure as PM, which has prompted the rebels to abort the peace negotiations. Maoist chairman Prachanda also issued a statement that there was no possibility of an "immediate cease-fire or talks" unless the government was ready for constituent assembly and UN mediation to solve the armed conflict. One day earlier, the government expressed readiness to initiate peace talks with the rebels if they were willing to accept constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy within the current constitution. In response, Prachanda stated that his party would not engage in a dialogue within the framework of the 1990 constitution. The government also has not taken any steps to create a favorable environment for the peace talks. Unless peace is restored, it also doubtful that free and fair elections could be held during the current Nepalese year. Except for the formation of some peace talks related committees, any talk of peace talks is just that and there is no indication that the peace process would be initiated any time soon.
PM Deuba made an official visit to India to meet the political leaders and to discuss bilateral issues and also to seek more military assistance to combat the rebels at home. Since his main partner in the current coalition government is the CPN UML, whose main objective is the restoration of peace in the country, the PM still expresses support for peace negotiations, but at the same time threatens that he would take tough measures against the rebels should the rebel leadership decline to negotiate. The four party alliance intends to intensify their demonstrations against "regression". NC Chairman G.P. Koirala also ruled out any support to the Deuba government. The rebel leadership eventually responded to government's appeals by stating that they would not respond to any appeals made through the media, but only through an official letter by the government. The government responded by sending an official letter, which failed to state the government position to the Maoists' core issues to be addressed should the peace negotiations by resumed.
The Maoist chairman responded to the government's letter stating that his party was ready to resume the peace negotiations providing the government creates a 'concrete environment for talks'. He further commented that "after the 'regressive' move of October 4, 2002, actual power of the `old regime' has been centered with the palace and Generals of the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) as per the directive of the foreign reactionaries." In his statement, Prachanda further stated that that the methodology, process and status of the incumbent Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government is same to that of the previous governments led by Lokendra Bahadur Chand and Surya Bahadur Thapa. "The rhetoric of talks being made by this government is huge in size but hollow in substance," the Maoist chairman said. Prachanda also used the opportunity to pose half a dozen questions to the government and asked if the ruling coalition could take the country to status quo ante by reverting the royal move of October 4, 2002. "Can they exhibit commitment and behavior to make Nepali people sovereign in real terms through 'constituent assembly?" He further asked if the present government could organize negotiations involving the United Nations or any reliable international human rights organization instead of asking for military support from Indian rulers. "Can they present at least one credible example that the government has control over the RNA?" Prachanda asked. The Maoist chairman replied to these questions himself by saying that incidences have shown that the Deuba government doesn't have status to give concrete answers to any of these questions. Prachanda also warned saying that his party was ready to fight till the end if the talks about talks turned out into what he said 'politics of conspiracy' against Nepali people.
The government made an effort to reply some to Prachanda's questions in an oblique way, which failed to bring a favorable response from the Maoist leadership. PM Deuba as chairman of the High Level Peace Committee held discussions with previous peace negotiators to learn from their experience. The former negotiators felt that any future peace negotiations should start from where the last negotiations ended. Furthermore, the government negotiators must show uniformity of approach toward the key issues and should start the process with "good intentions". Before engaging in the talks, the government should first take all political parties into confidence. Kamal Thapa suggested that the government should clarify the meaning of the term "maximum flexibility", which he said was ambiguous. This term was substituted in the Common Minimum Program for constituent assembly elections at the insistence of PM Deuba, who is opposed to constituent assembly, which is the key issue on the Maoist agenda. PM Deuba has not changed his attitude since his previous term as PM, which in fact replicates the attitude of the previous two Pancha governments. His attitude may be the main obstacle in bringing the rebels to the negotiating table. Since there has been no reaction from the rebels to the government's 'reply', the PM started to talk about holding elections before the end of the current Nepalese year.
Some political analysts observed that Deuba was so desperate for power that he agreed to his re-appointment as under the Article 127 of the constitutions thus making him a puppet PM of the Palace. It is becoming clear that the support of the CPN/UML is not enough for his government to survive. He has not been able to summon the support of his parent Nepali Congress, nor to bring the Maoists to the negotiating table. His pledge to hold general elections by mid-April 2005 is also rash. It is hard to believe that the government that is unable to initiate peace talks with the rebels would be able to conduct the elections, because the Maoists would reject such elections and so would the four-party alliance. The UML members in the government have shown their inability to navigate the government to the correct direction and their actions have not been able to convince the Maoists that the government has the power to negotiate with them. It is quite obvious that the present government is working under the advice of the army and they are running the show. The king may feel happier and more secure with the strengthening of the army and militarization of the country. But he must realize that the monarchy cannot be safeguarded with the help of the army. Rather its longevity is dependent upon the respect of the people and trust of the political parties.
If the present mistrust between political parties and the king continues and the young generation continues its demand for a republican state and the Maoists bottom line demand for a constitutional assembly is not accepted, the army could be a threat to the nation. Its enhanced strength along with the growing mistrust between the king and political leaders could lure the army to absolute power. The king must realize that the poor Nepalese people were continuously exploited first by the Rana regime for 105 years (1855-1950), then by power hungry selfish leaders for 10 years (1950-1960), by the partyless Panchayat system for 30 years (1960-1990), by corrupt political leaders for the last fourteen years (1990-2004) and further exploitation for the next few decades would inflict more pain and suffering on the people. As a solution to the present political crisis, it would a be lot better if the king agreed to constituent assembly elections in order to bring about a lasting peace in the country as well as political, social and economic reforms that would be agreed upon during the peace talks between the Maoists and the political parties.
On October 28, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tara Nath Ranabhat in an interview to a local newspaper said that the King can re-instate the dissolved lower house of parliament on PM's recommendation and approval of the same by the political parties. "If the environment for holding elections is not favorable, the House can be re-instated either by the king or by the Supreme Court by reviewing its verdict issued 27 months ago," Ranabhat said. The speaker further said the two former PMs L.B. Chand and S.B. Thapa did not play positive roles for House's revival. According to him, even PM Deuba is not playing a positive role. "The political parties that have launched a movement against the king are also responsible for not convincing the PM to recommend the House's re-instatement to the King," he added. "Instead of demanding the reinstatement of the House in the streets, they should demand the same in a legal way." Ranabhat also said the repeated promulgation of several ordinances has shown the dire need to re-instate the House. "The government has no right to rule by repeatedly issuing ordinances," he said. The re-instatement would also mean the end of the present government and the formation of a new all-party government based on the proportional representation of the House.
Before embarking on his two-week visit to Norway, Sweden and the United States, UML's General Secretary M.K. Nepal stated to the media people that the government was ready to negotiate the three main demands raised by the Maoists - holding a round-tale conference, forming an interim government and drafting a new constitution through constituent assembly. However, this may be only his own personal view rather than the official position of the government. When asked when the peace talks with the rebels would resume, Nepal said, "they would start only once the government and the Maoists realize that they cannot win the war with weapons." There was no official reaction to his remarks by the government. On November 11, during a meeting with senior editors and publishers, Minister for Information and Communication Mohamed Moshin stated that the country may soon experience an authoritarian government, if the present government fails to bring the Maoists to the negotiating table. Moshin, who is also the King's representative in the coalition government hinted that the present adverse situation to hold elections and the heedless stance taken by the Maoists toward the resumption of the peace talks were paving the way for an authoritarian system in the country soon. Such authoritarian system could be explained as one where the king assumes absolute executive powers and suspends certain fundamental rights of the people and with the military playing an influential role. According to Moshin, the Maoists would have accept the blame should such a system come about for refusing to talk to the government.
Moshin's statement brought a strong criticism. K. P. Sharma Oli, a key leader of CPN/UML said the government's spokesman, Dr. Mohammed Mohsin, should have been sacked for his recent controversial remarks. He has also expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of UML's members in the coalition government for not registering their 'note of dissent' in the government's decision to amend anti-terror law and promulgating ordinance on royal expenditure. CPN UML spokesman Pradeep Nepal also blamed Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba for not showing interest in holding peace talks with the Maoist insurgents. Speaking at a face-to-face program organized by the Reporters’ Club, Nepal said, "There is no progress in starting the peace process because Prime Minister Deuba himself is disinterested." He also alleged that the government had not taken a single move in the last five months that could be praised. "The government was required to take concrete steps to bring the Maoists to the negotiating table but it has proved a complete non-starter." According to him, a meeting of the UML central committee to be held within a month would decide whether to stay in the Deuba government. He said if the government expects positive response from the rebels, it should disclose its talks agenda after holding a roundtable conference. "If we want a forward-looking solution to the crisis, constituent assembly is the only way out. If status quo is what we are looking for, reinstatement of the House of Representatives would ensure that," he said. Brushing aside the Prime Minister's claim to conduct general elections by the end of April 2005, the UML spokesman said, "Nobody wants to lose a life while carrying ballot boxes to the villages in the present situation.” Although the government has been in office for almost six months, its main objectives - restoration of peace and holding parliamentary elections - remain elusive goals.
The reinstatement of the dissolved parliament has been initially the main objective of the Koirala led Nepali Congress party as the only solution to resolve the current political crisis. Now, with no immediate prospects for the restoration of peace, other political parties as well as citizens' groups now also see the reactivation of parliament as the only solution to bring the rebels to the negotiation table. Although both the king and PM Deuba are opposed to the idea, the majority of leaders of PM's own party are in favor. This would also bring an end to the regression brought about by king's assumption of all executive powers and allow the formation of an all-party government including the rebels. PM's repeated appeals to the rebels to return to the negotiating table seem to fall on deaf ears. Unless the PM creates a favorable environment for talks, it is doubtful that the rebel leadership would respond. After all it was PM Deuba, who during his previous tenure declared the rebels terrorist, issued Red Tag notices with Interpol and mobilized the army to bring an end to the insurrection.
The rebels still want to see a negotiated settlement providing the government agrees to their agenda for talks - roundtable conference of all political players including the palace, the formation of an interim government to frame a new constitution through elections to a constituent assembly. They also want that the whole process takes place in a transparent manner under the supervision of a neutral institution such as the United Nations. The statements coming from the PM and other members of his government only promise that the government is willing to discuss any issue but without making any commitment on any key rebel demand. Since India is Nepal's largest source of military hardware, it is felt that it might object to the presence of a third party in the peace mediation process. Another indication of PM's indifference toward the peace process is that fact that he has not engaged the services of any people as facilitators in the previous peace talks to assist the government in bringing the rebels to the negotiating table.
As was to be expected, the rebels did not respond to the government deadline for the resumption of the peace talks. Although it is a general view that free and fair parliamentary elections in the present political environment cannot be held, the PM wants to go ahead in announcing the elections in accordance with the mandate he was given by the king at the time he was re-appointed six moths ago. CPN/UML, the major partner in the coalition government publicly expressed their opposition to holding the elections prior to establishing peace in the country and bringing the rebels into the political mainstream to make the elections free and fair. That will not be possible in the present political environment, even if the elections are held stage wise and with the military providing the security. The rebels already made it public that they will disturb the election should the government proceed with the idea. During the last week of January, the royal appointee in the government, who also acts as a government spokesman issued a statement that unless the government implements the agenda it was given by the king at the of its formation: "to restore peace and hold general elections", it must resign on moral grounds.
Since his re-appointment as PM, Deuba was never shown serious emphasis on bringing the rebels to the negotiating table, nor has he shown any willingness to create a truly favorable environment for peace talks. On the contrary, he made many controversial public statements indicating that his hard-line attitude toward the rebels has not changed. His main focus was on holding general elections, although the majority of observes felt that the present political climate was not favorable to hold free and fair elections. Furthermore, two major partners in his coalition government - CPN/UML and RPP - also felt that the restoration of peace should be the key objective before announcing the elections. PM's thinking may be motivated by the fact that he was already once dismissed by the king for his inability to hold elections as originally announced. However, the possibility of losing his chair a second time may be a wiser option than plunging the country into an even greater turmoil. CPN/UML's cadres were also putting pressure on the party leadership to withdraw from the Deuba government.
In the morning on February 1, what Dr. Mohamed Moshin, the royal appointee in the coalition government predicted has happened. The king issued the following proclamation: "we have, by virtue of the State Authority as exercised by us and in keeping with the spirit of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal 1990, taking into consideration Article 27 (3) of the Constitution, dissolved, effective from today, the current Council of Ministers to fulfill the people's desire for the restoration of peace and security and to activate soon the democratic dispensation. The Council of Ministers to be constituted will be under our Chairmanship. This Council of Ministers will give utmost priority to reactivating multiparty democracy in the country within three years with the implementation of effective reforms by restoring peace and security." With this measure, the king followed his father's example who dismissed the elected government 43 years earlier and established absolute monarchial rule with a partyless Panchayat political system.
All key political personalities have been put under house arrest and a state of emergency was declared. Air traffic to and from Nepal became sporadic with many flights cancelled or diverted. Internet and telephone communications were suspended and press censorship imposed. The king also suspended several provisions in the constitution including freedom of the press, speech and expression, peaceful assembly, the right to privacy and the right against preventive detention said a statement from the Narayanhiti palace. This may result in more arbitrary arrests and abuses of human rights by the security forces with impunity that have already been of great concern to the international community.
Both India and Britain stated that the king violated Nepal's constitution, which enshrines multiparty democracy alongside constitutional monarchy. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan viewed the king's action "as a serious setback for the country" which will not bring lasting peace and stability to Nepal," and US State Department said Washington is also troubled and sees the king's move as a step back from democracy. The South Asian summit in Dhaka, which the King was scheduled to attend during the second week of February was cancelled as India pulled out, partly in protest at the King's move.
The king moved swiftly to appoint a 10-men cabinet of royal loyalists under his chairmanship. The majority of the ministers served as high government official during the pre-1990 Panchayat era. The government's immediate priority is to establish peace in the country. "To establish peace, we are considering how to move forward with the peace process and the dialogue with the Maoists," Education Minister Radha Krishna Mainali told Reuters. When asked "Will they come for talks or not?" "If they do, we can move forward in a certain way, and if they don't, we have to make another choice."
In a statement smuggled out while under house arrest, former Prime Minister and leader of the Nepali Congress party, Girija Prasad Koirala, urged parties to unite against the king. "In this grave political situation ... I appeal to all democratic forces to join hands and move ahead collectively against the royal coup d'etat in order to restore the sovereignty of the people," he said. The divided political parties could bring up to half a million activists onto the streets, and protests have toppled previous governments appointed by the king. Koirala further said that hundreds of politicians had been arrested. But Mainali, the number three in the new government after the king and the foreign minister, said they would be released soon.
The move to cut all phone lines and Internet access has prevented opponents of king's takeover from rallying supporters in protest. At least two political leaders are on the run, local newspapers reported. The state radio announced that all news against the royal proclamation of emergency and sacking of the Deuba government were banned for six months. Soldiers have been posted in television newsrooms to monitor everything before it is aired, local reporters said, as well as in editorial offices of newspapers reading all text prior to publication and deleting anything that that might suggest criticism of the royal coup. "I have not seen such censorship in my life," said a newspaper editor who survived even the 30-year direct monarchical rule of the Panchayat regime between 1960-90. In the old Panchayat days, you could at least test the waters by writing provocatively. But now, we have received a clear warning not to do anything against the interests of the current regime."
With many key political leaders under arrest and all fundamental freedoms suspended, it does not appear that the various political parties will be able to launch a credible opposition to the monarch anytime soon. "Although there is a will, they lack the means at the moment," said another editor. "But they will eventually find their footing, especially if the international pressure on the king grows." "The king is really taking a gamble on this, its win or lose," said an editor of a weekly publication. "He has risked all. He is hoping he can tackle the real problem of the Maoist revolution. There is big competition for peace in Nepal. Whoever can deliver peace will be OK."
Twenty-five leading Nepalese human rights groups issued a joint open letter saying Gyanendra had effectively established a military regime urging foreign governments to help. "The king's actions violate international practices and legal standards for human rights even under the conditions of a legitimate 'state of emergency'," the letter said. "We are deeply concerned by the growing number of political prisoners and the increasing insecurity of human rights defenders, journalists and lawyers." The 25 groups are too scared to be named publicly, but include several leading human rights organizations.
Battling criticism from overseas and growing dissent within, the king has launched a three-pronged strategy to ensure Nepal’s threatened monarchy survives the gamble he has undertaken by dismissing the Deuba government and assuming direct rule, an action that could threaten the future of the monarchy itself. First, the palace announced wide-ranging populist measures to sway public opinion in king’s favor. Second, the king directed the army to intensify its campaign against the Maoists and finally, he launched a campaign to build bridges with the international community. Measures to battle corruption, improve governance and strengthen development in Nepal were announced on Saturday, February 5, even as the police continued its crackdown on political activities and arrested four ministers of the ousted Sher Bahadur Deuba cabinet. Those arrested include former Works and Physical Planning Minister Prakash Man Singh, Agriculture Minister Homnath Dahal, Education Minister Bimalendra Nidhi, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Prakash Mahat and the spokesman of Nepali Congress (Democratic) Minendra Rijal. The central members of Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic) party were arrested on Friday while they were holding a meeting at their party's office.
Nepalese human rights groups plan the first open show of defiance against the king's seizure of power on February 10, saying they can no longer stay silent and daring him to "fill the jails." "Any delay to act would be suicidal. We are not going to remain silent," said a leader of the Human Rights and Peace Society. "Under the king's direct rule there is no future for those who support fundamental human rights and freedom." Rights groups have called king's coup a military takeover and appealed to foreign governments, which prop up the Hindu kingdom with aid and military assistance, to force him to restore democracy. They want an immediate end to all foreign military assistance for the Royal Nepal Army.
By Sunday, February 6, the army eased the communication blackout by gradually restoring telephone service and by Monday Internet. However, they warned that they may monitor all electronic communication such as fax and e-mail. FM broadcasts shall remain permanently suspended putting about 1,000 media people out of work. There have been no major developments during the second week of February. According a statement by the security forces, 54 warrants have been served on key political leaders. 41 were in security custody and 13 were initially under house arrest. However, four have since been released from house arrest: former PMs K.P. Bhattarai, S.B. Thapa, L.B. Chand and RPP Chair Rana. Those under house arrest have no contact with the outside world, no visitors, no telephone, Internet, only state run TV. US ambassador was also prevented from visiting key political leaders currently under house arrest.
A statement from the palace assured the population that the state of emergency would be soon lifted once the internal situation return to normal. India’s military establishment has pledged to continue the supply of military hardware to Nepal. However, India's political leadership, as well as the international community continue to press the king for the restoration of basic rights and freedoms. It is still a mystery what role the political parties would be allowed to play in the current political environment once their leaders are set free. The king’s government formed a number of committees to oversee a speedy implementation of its twenty-one point agenda. The key priorities are to root out corruption within the civil service, speedy delivery of essential services to the population and a number of other programs directed toward alleviation of poverty among the downtrodden segments of Nepal’s population. On Sunday Feb. 13, the king appointed two vice-chairmen who served as prime ministers during the pre-1990 Panchayat era. During his audience with the king, the US ambassador was told that the king needs 3 months or 100 days to get various straightened without being specific or commitment that democratic freedoms would be restored.
The pressure from the international community continues. A coordinated diplomatic statement was made by India, the US and UK on Saturday, Feb. 12 when all three ambassadors were recalled for consultations. The slap on the wrist has not gone unnoticed by the king. The king's decision to assume absolute power prompted protests in many countries. The clamor in India to withdraw support to the king continues. In New Delhi about 500 Nepalis carrying red banners gathered shouting "Down with Monarchy" and "Long live the Republic." "Our first demand is lifting of curbs on media, restoring fundamental rights and revoking the emergency. The solution lies only in an election." Sources in New Delhi say that the Indian envoy will return to Kathmandu with a strong message for the king - that he should revive the political party system and then invite the Maoists for talks.
On February 15, the government issued an Ordinance to amend the Local-Self-Governance Act 1999 authorizing government officials to run local bodies for the next three years in the absence of elected representatives, whose term expired two years ago. This applies to municipalities, DDCs and VDCs. All VDCs already had government appointed secretaries, who were taking care of administrative paperwork, since many elected VDC Chairmen were illiterate. Following the dismissal of all elected office bearers by the Deuba government in 2002, the rebels filled the void by establishing their own village administrations throughout most of rural Nepal and there are probably very few secretaries still present in the villages. Since the rebels maintain a very tight control over areas under their administration, the government may have a very difficult task to have its own people run the VDCs.
NC President G.P. Koirala, who is still under house arrest, reportedly appealed to all democratic forces to participate in a non-violent movement to be launched from February 18 - the Democracy Day. NC spokesperson Arjun Narsingh KC, and former minister and President of Nepal's Women Association Meena Pandey were arrested on February 16 in the party's central office while addressing media people to make the party's official statement on the royal proclamation of Feb.1 public. The statement expressed concerns over the turn of events in the country and says the events vindicate the party's decision to continue with street protests since the past several months. These arrests make it obvious that the king intends to clamp down on any political activity directed against the present regime.
On February 16, king's direct rule suffered another setback. An official from the Danish Embassy in Kathmandu stated "We have informed the Nepalese government there will be no signing of any agreement for a number of integrated rural development projects, cooperation for control of administrative corruption, community forestry, health and educational programs in Nepal's new fiscal year starting in mid-July." No formal reasons were given for the suspension of Danish aid amounting to about US $26 million annually. There was no immediate reaction from the government on the move by Denmark, Nepal's second largest bilateral aid donor after Japan for its rural, environmental, forestry, health and educational programs. Also, the Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) welcomed the recall of ambassadors and India's stance that it would not support the royal takeover. It urged international community to take the necessary steps to "ensure that multi-party democracy and respect for human rights are restored in Nepal". It also urged the international community to freeze all aid to the country and suspend its seat in the UN for violating its charter. "A UN envoy must be located permanently within Nepal so as to facilitate the return to democracy. A UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Nepal must also be appointed and report on developments constantly." said the AHRC statement. The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) also expressed concern over the arrest of journalists like the general secretary of Federation of Nepalese Journalists Bishnu Nisthuri. President of IFJ, Christopher Warren, who arrived in Nepal on a four-day visit is seeking an audience with the king regarding the latest developments affecting the freedom of the press.
Amnesty International delegation led by secretary-general Irene Khan was in Nepal from February 10-16 to assess the human rights situation in the country. The delegation said that a human rights "catastrophe" was looming in Nepal following the declaration of the state of emergency. The conflict between the Maoists and the armed forces has seen a sharp deterioration of the human rights situation in the countryside, and now the same is happening in urban areas, taking the country to the brink of disaster, the AI said. AI is concerned that the emergency "has reduced the prospects of a political process toward peace and increased the likelihood of escalation of the conflict that could lead to even greater human suffering and abuse." The AI has called on the government to "open a political process" to resolve the ongoing conflict and to protect human rights defenders and journalists.
On February 17, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has expressed serious concern over the state of media in Nepal following the recent political change. UNESCO director general Koichiro Matsura described the move to suspend civil liberties and freedom of expression a "serious setback". "The gains over the past 15 years in terms of press freedom, and therefore, of democratic progress, have been obliterated in a space of a few days. However, press freedom like other fundamental freedoms is indispensable for a properly functioning society. Nepal will not be able to live in peace without respecting these fundamental rights, democracy and the multi-party system," he has said in a statement.
On Friday February 18, the king will head the celebrations to mark the annual Democracy Day, said the state media. It is celebrated annually since the early 1950s, when the present king's grandfather, king Tribhuvan, returned from exile in India. Though democracy had a royal washout, it has not deterred the king from celebrations. He will address the nation, it will be his second national address within a month. On earlier Democracy Day celebrations, the king, who used to be a constitutional monarch, delivered a message to the nation. However, it was the elected prime minister who attended the official functions. This time, the state media said, king would attend the public ceremonies earlier chaired by the prime minister.
On Friday February 18, king attended a democracy day rally, as telephone lines were cut in the kingdom in an apparent bid to scuttle anti-king protests. Hundreds of troops guarded the army ground, where the king made his first major public appearance since his takeover, to mark the democracy day. The army and police are believed to be solidly behind the monarch, and analysts say the military planned the power grab. In the short message, the king said he took power to protect democracy from Maoist rebels and political instability. "Terrorist activities coupled with politics far removed from the common man gave a fillip to instability in the nation and put democracy at risk. It was clear to our countrymen that we ourselves had to take the steps to extricate the country and multi-party democracy from this morass. Politics in a democracy must be devoted to the welfare of the nation and people." While all political leaders are in detention, he emphasized on the need to conduct impartial elections in an environment of peace and security. However, the king did not mention when the fresh elections would be held. Local media reported that security forces arrested more than one hundred people in different parts of the country, who were engaged in peaceful demonstrations against the royal takeover.
Before leaving Nepal, Christopher Warren, president of International Federation of Journalists expressed concern that a government commission to regulate the media, reportedly in the works, would run the risk of causing long-term damage to the media. Already, the present restriction on the media, along with general security, has threatened the viability of Nepali media, said the IFJ in a statement released on February 19. The two-member IFJ delegation during their three-day visit estimated that half of all papers published prior to the declaration of state of emergency had shut down. "Even those that remain had been significantly reduced in size and may not survive for long," said the IFJ. At least 600 journalists have already lost their jobs and up to a thousand more could risk losing their jobs, if the current trend continued, said IFJ. Six journalists, including Bishnu Nisthuri, the general secretary of the Federation of Nepalese Journalists, were still in Government custody, said the IFJ mission, which also included the South Asia coordinator, Laxmi Murthy. The IFJ team also identified measures of censorship that had undermined the ability of the Nepalese people to learn what was happening. “In this climate, rumors and insecurity will flourish,” said Warren.
Nepal has become a police state under emergency rule and king Gyanendra’s forces are hounding political opponents, not the rebels they claim to be fighting, opposition leaders said following the events that had taken place during the democracy day. Opponents of the king and some human rights groups say that human rights violations have increased and the army is making most decisions in the country, but the military denies the allegations. “They are wrong, we have a council of ministers and has no more power than before the king dismissed the previous government,” said Brig. Gen. Dipak Gurung, the chief spokesman for the army. The king, who named a council of ministers composed of some of his staunchest supporters, said he took power because he needed the authority to combat the rebels, who fight to abolish monarchy in Nepal. Nepal’s political parties failed to organize planned major public protests against the king’s move. Those demonstrators who showed up were promptly arrested.
Ram Saran Mahat, a top leader of Nepali Congress who worked as a senior cabinet minister under three prime ministers, is the most senior opposition politician still free. Most of the others are either in detention or have gone underground. Mahat said he accepted king’s assertion that Nepal’s politicians had been squabbling for power and had governance problems; but the insisted a state of emergency should not have been the answer. “Anybody can be branded a terrorist now…in the name of security. Every normal activity is under the control of the security forces – the army and the police,” Mahat told the Associated Press. “There were mistakes… but you have to play the game by the rules. If politicians are bad, they can be thrown out by the people at election time.” Another politician, Khadga Prasad Oli, a top communist leader and one-time home minister, who was under house arrest until a few days ago said “there is no place for peaceful differences. For people like us who worked for democracy and who believe in democracy, this is a shocking and surprising time.” Police built sandbagged pickets around his home, snapped his phone lines and refused to let him out or allow anyone to visit him for 14 days.
On February 22, the government issued a directive to security agencies to prevent some 200 political leaders, human rights activists and trade union leaders from leaving Kathmandu. About two-dozen of such personalities, including Deputy Speaker Chitra Lekha Yadav; professor Kapil Shrestha, a member of National Human Rights Commission and a leader of CPN(united) Hemanta Bahadur BC have already been stopped at the airport or road checkpost. Furthermore, authorities have issued arrest warrants to 45 among the 95 political leaders or cadres, who attempted to participate in protest rallies against the royal takeover on democracy day. The remaining 40 have been released. According to a report unveiled by the Asian Human Rights Commission on February 24, after the declaration of the state of emergency on February 1, the security forces arrested 383 political party leaders and workers and 35 human rights activists.
The newly appointed Foreign Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey, in an interview with Kathmandu based correspondent of IANS, an Indian new service, Pandey said fifty years of Indo-Nepal relations tell a story of wasted opportunities. "We call for frankness and transparency. The government is very serious about its commitments to India." As for Nepal's political leaders fleeing to India and starting protests against recent developments in Nepal there, the Minister added "As far as political considerations are concerned, our government's standing policy is not to allow Nepal's soil to be used against any of its neighbors. We are confident that our friendly neighbors will reciprocate." The ministers remarks come amid latest reports that India has reaffirmed its support for Nepali political parties.
The European Parliament discussed the present situation in Nepal and reaffirmed its view that a negotiated and democratically based solution was the only sustainable way to end the current conflict in Nepal. It also recommended that a neutral third party such as the UN or the EU be involved in arbitrating such negotiation. The provisional edition of the text adopted by the 732-member parliament representing 25 nations of the EU, said “any search for a solution by military means will only add to and prolong the suffering of the Nepalese people.” The EU statement further added that the conflict has had a devastating impact on the already extremely poor population of Nepal, one of poorest countries in Asia. On the current political situation, the parliament said that while it welcomed the release of some political prisoners, it was deeply concerned that other political leaders, students and human rights activists remained in detention or were under house arrest since February 1. The parliament also asked EU nations to review their assistance to Nepal and to scrutinize closely the final destination of all assistance to ensure that it serves its primary purpose of poverty alleviation, and to fund conflict resolution programs. It has also called for the suspension of all military assistance for the time being.
On March 3, the authorities extended the house arrest of senior political leaders by two more months. Those leaders are NC President G.P. Koirala; deposed PM and President of NC(D) S.B. Deuba; CPN/UML General Secretary M.K. Nepal; former DPM Bharat Mohan Adhikary; People’s Front Nepal Chairman Amik Sherchan and NC(D) central leader Purna Bahadur Khadka. For a second time, US Ambassador was denied permission to visit NC President G.P. Koirala
Five political parties formed an alliance with the purpose of launching protest program in the future. The parties that are part of the alliance are Nepali Congress, Nepali Congress (Democratic), Nepal Communist Party (UML), Peoples’ Front Nepal and Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandi Devi). They are engaged in intense discussions in the changed political context, threshing out a comprehensive and concrete agenda for a future Nepal before launching their protest program. They are collectively taking up comprehensive issues that include re-structuring the organizations of the parties, restructuring the state and reforming the election process. They are also debating how to bring marginalized groups into the national mainstream. NC has proposed restructuring the state into five geographical regions and developing them as regional governments.
The February 1 events also had a devastating effect on tourist arrivals in Nepal with an overall decline of 43 percent in February 2005 when compared to the same month one year earlier. The number of tourist arrivals in Nepal has seen a steady decline for the past six months. On March 15, Sahara Airways resumed Delhi-Kathmandu service, which was suspended since February 1. Although the service resumption was announced some time ago, the flight arrived in Kathmandu with only 20 passengers. This is also a reflection of the impact of February 1 events on tourism.
On March 11, the government released deposed PM Deuba from house arrest, along with 18 other political prisoners. The decision to release Deuba came just two days before Nepal’s foreign minister was to attend UN human rights conference in Geneva and after opposition politicians staged their first successful street protest earlier in the week. In an interview with Associated Press soon after his house arrest was lifted, Deuba called for the release of all political prisoners. “Our party would work with others toward a peaceful movement for full restoration of democracy in Nepal,” he said. “We are open to dialogue with the king so that multiparty government is restored and elections are held.” He also thanked the international community for putting pressure on the king to restore democratic rights. Nepalese politicians opposed to their country’s backslide toward absolute form of monarchy viewed the release of Deuba and the others with skepticism, with some saying that it was only a token gesture to quiet international criticism. “This is just to show off that the government is gradually releasing politicians in detention and nothing more,” said Mahesh Acharya of Nepali Congress. At the same time, he government also extended the house arrest or detention of five prominent political leaders, who include NC President G.P. Koirala and CPN-UML General Secretary M.K. Nepal by two more months. This may also mean that the government id not yet ready to lift the state of emergency.
Although the government released deposed PM Deuba, other key political leaders remain under house arrest or behind bars. Since all the leaders still in detainment have been engaged in protests against regression prior to the royal takeover, the government must be apprehensive of their possible actions once they are set free. Both NC and UML cadres have already been engaged in protests against the royal takeover. SB Rana, president of RPP suggested “serious” and “genuine unity of purpose” between the king and political parties in a common quest for political normalcy. Deuba, while in office always acted as a true royalist, apparently shares similar views as the leaders of RPP and RJP, parties formed by former Panchayat politicians. Since NC president GP Koirala considers Deuba’s actions in 2000 as the root cause leading to the present situation, it is doubtful that he would agree to any alliance with Deuba’s dissident NC faction. The government is also considering re-instating certain authorities of the Panchayat era that were abolished following the restoration of democracy in 1990. With press censorship in place, the government has further tightened the rules on what the press can report. It is now illegal to publish any criticism of the army or government employees that might result in a negative impact in their morale.
On March 31, Information and Communication Minister Tanka Dhakal, who is also the government spokesman, asked the political parties to choose between "peace and terrorism", and warned that the government would enact tough laws against the parties should they continue to defy the government. He blamed the parties of carrying out street demonstrations "instead of helping the government resolve the Maoist crisis." "The political parties should stop their clandestine association with the Maoists and stop going abroad to incite foreign powers to suspend aid." Dhakal said at a press conference.
One day later, the government set the NC president G.P. Koirala along with more than 200 political detainees free. UML's general secretary M.K. Nepal as well as hundreds of other political detainees have not been freed. Next day following his release, G.P. Koirala held a press conference at his party's central office. Koirala said the king's move dealt a blow to the constitution 1990. He also alleged the king of breaching the agreement between the king and the pro-democracy forces at the culmination of the 'people's movement' of 1990. Koirala said dialogue with the king was possible only if the state of emergency was lifted, all political prisoners released and full press freedom restored. "These are the three pre-conditions if the king wants a dialogue with the political parties" Koirala said. "We are strong advocates of monarchy in its constitutional form since the formation of our party, it is up to the king if he wants us to maintain our party principle or choose an alternative path." He said his party was not in favor of making hasty decision on monarchy, but that it stood now for 'complete democracy'. When asked to clarify what he meant by complete democracy, Koirala said "It means King as constitutional head with no power. Also complete democracy means that no one would need to wave flags and fight for democracy in the future." Koirala repeatedly said that the reinstatement of the dissolved parliament was the only viable option that could provide a platform for both the king and the parties to explore better options to resolve the Maoist problem. Koirala said there was no alternative to a peaceful movement to end king's direct rule. He planned to hold discussions with other political parties to chalk out a common agenda for the movement.
On the occasion of the Nepalese New year, in his message to the nation, the king said that he commanded the National Election Commission to hold municipal elections within the current year. The major political parties termed the election call as a ploy to legitimize the king's February 1 move. NC president G.P. Koirala stated that his party would boycott the elections should they be held. The UN Commission for Human Rights currently meeting in Geneva also compelled Nepal to allow the presence of UN observers to monitor human rights violations in the country. By allowing UN to monitor and investigate human rights violations in the country, the government tacitly acknowledged a group it considers terrorists and set a precedence for possible future external mediation. In mid April, the king gave an interview to Time magazine. In essence, the king's comments were the usual rhetoric trying to justify his assumption of direct rule, an action none of the western democracies accepted as valid. In another effort toward central rule, the government decided to re-appoint zonal commissioners, posts which were abolished as part of decentralization following the restoration of democracy in 1990. Legal experts also expressed serious doubts about the independence of the judicial bodies, including the Supreme Court and the National Commission for Human Rights after the February 1 move. Because the chiefs of both bodies have publicly supported the king's move, legal experts expressed a serious doubt that they will work independently. The state of emergency has not been lifted and many prominent political leaders remain in detention.
The Nepali Congress put down its opposition to the February 1 royal takeover in writing. The NC central committee formally stated that the king's February 1 proclamation was both against the constitution and democracy and that it heralded the beginning of his direct and "absolute" rule. NC statement issued during the last week of April said that the actions after February 1 - declaration of state of emergency, the investigations of the Royal Commission on Corruption Control, the curtailing of fundamental rights, the restrictions on the press, the announcement of municipal polls at a time "when democratic processes were suspended," and the wave of arrests - showed the authoritarian nature of the present government.
The Royal Commission for the Control of Corruption summoned the deposed PM Deuba to question him concerning suspected irregularities in connection with the Melamchi Drinking Project. Deuba ignored the summons citing that the commission is unconstitutional. He was subsequently arrested and kept in detention. Deuba repeatedly refused to issue statement alleging that the RCCC is an unconstitutional body. He was subsequently charged with corruption and embezzlement involving more than 300 million rupees in connection with the large Melamchi drinking water project. Although he has not yet been officially charged, the RCCC is seeking ten year jail term if convicted. On his return from a visit to Jakarta and China during the last week of April, the king lifted the state of emergency, however, all the restrictions that were imposed under the state of emergency have not been repealed. The government also released M.K. Nepal, the leader of the main opposition party from a three-months long house arrest. However, the arrests and re-arrests of political leaders and activists continue unabated. Many political leaders detained since February 1 continue to be detained. Seven political parties formed an alliance to press for the restoration of all democratic rights suspended by the royal takeover. The key leaders warned that they may review their stance toward monarchy itself if the king did not agree to return to the constitutional fold. Addressing party workers, NC president G.P. Koirala alleged that the document of consensus that late king Birendra reached in 1990 with popular forces has collapsed. "The future of monarchy is at stake after ending the consensus of the 1990 people's movement. The door for unity and reconciliation has been blocked now."
The present situation also continues to impact on economy and tourism. There has been a steady decline in tourist arrivals since September 2004 and especially after February 1. During April, tourist arrivals from India declined by 33 percent and from third countries by 40 percent. The trend continued also in May with 30 percent decline in third countries tourist arrivals. There has also been an 85 percent decline in foreign investment. Immediately after the king returned from the Afro-Asian summit at the end of April, he lifted the state of emergency. This was necessary, since any extension was possible only with the approval of parliament that does not exist, thus any extension would have been in conflict with the provisions contained in the constitution. However, all restrictions on civil liberties and press freedom remain in place. Although the government has been releasing some political prisoners, many political leaders still behind bars. The lifting of the state of emergency was welcomed by India and United States, however, both countries would like to see the return of full democracy and freedom.
Although India released a shipment of military vehicles that were in the pipeline on February 1, the government's coalition partner has been very critical of any resumption of military aid to Nepal. The US government also resumed shipments of "non-lethal" military hardware. However, the US seems to be very concerned with the fact that the political parties with the exception of the RPP party formed by former Panchas do not intend to reconcile with the king while the present repressive regime remains in place. The seven-party alliance reached a consensus on their agenda. Since the Nepalese army and the Maoists cannot defeat each other nor reconcile, the trump card for restoring peace lies with the political parties They have not only sent a message of unity, but have also put on the table a concrete roadmap for peace: Reinstatement of the House of Representatives, formation of an all-party government, national referendum or election to the constituent assembly if need be. The parties, in their peace roadmap, have also given space to the king as well as the Maoists.
During the first week of June, G.P. Koirala went to Delhi for medical checkup. Although in recent past some prominent personalities were prevented from leaving the country or even leaving Kathmandu, Koirala was allowed to travel. In addition to a medical checkup, Koirala held discussions with the majority of India's prominent political leaders. They all seem to support the agenda of the seven-party alliance for the restoration of democracy in Nepal. Koirala also held telephonic conversation with rebel leadership, although he gave no details of what was being discussed. Koirala's daughter Sujata returned with her father to Nepal. Another political leader, Bam Dev Gautam of CPN-UML, who was only recently released from detention following an order by the Supreme Court, also visited New Delhi for discussions with India's leftist leaders. While there, both top rebel leaders Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai have contacted him by phone. The rebels also support the agenda of the seven-party alliance. The current view of their perception of future Nepal is similar to what it was during the cease-fire. Then, they were prepared to accept constitutional monarchy within the framework of democratic multiparty political system should the Nepalese people choose so through constitutional assembly elections. Now, their vision is a democratic, multi-party republic.
The repressive rule of the king's Pancha government continues. Although the state of emergency was lifted, all repressive measures of the Feb. 1 royal proclamation remain in place. On the contrary, the king and his Pancha government have been reviving many institutions of the discredited pre-1990 Panchayat era. Although the Maoists have shown solidarity with the agitating parties, the government warned the political parties that should any of them align with the CPN-M, it would be declared as being terrorist by the government. The seven-party alliance also ruled out any reconciliation with the king, certainly not before democracy and full freedoms have been restored. India, Britain and the European community have all publicly expressed their support of the seven-party agenda. Only the palace centric US ambassador seems to support the king's military solution to the internal conflict. Only the US government has provided "non lethal" military assistance to Nepal since the royal takeover.
The economy also falters in the wake of February 1, the GDP that was forecast to be above 4 percent is now expected to be less than 2 percent. foreign investment is declined by 85%; inflation is on the rise; export is down to 3.6% or one half of what it was last year. Foreign grants, which fund major development projects have also seen a sharp drop. The World Bank delayed a disbursement of Rs 5 billion and IMF a grant of Rs 70 million expressing concerns over what they call a lack of progress in economic reforms programs being pursued by the government. The economic growth rate is expected to be less than 2% compared 3.3% last year. The government is also short of cash to meet regular expenditure. Tourism, once considered the key to prosperity, is virtually non-existent. Travel advisories of most western countries caution their citizens against travel to Nepal. Some airlines have at least temporarily suspended their service to Nepal.
Although six months have passed since the royal takeover, all the restriction imposed on the people of Nepal continue and no relaxation of the repressive measures has taken place. The king created Royal Commission on Corruption Control (RCC) took the former PM Deuba and his cabinet colleague Prakash Man Singh into custody and charged them with corruption in connection with the Melanchi drinking water project and subsequently imposed two-year jail sentences and heavy fines on both, although the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that is funding a large portion of the project has conducted its own investigation on the awarding of the construction contract and found no irregularities
The opposition to king's direct rule is growing not only from the sidelined political parties, but most recently also from civic society. On August 5, some 20,000 people from all walks of life took part in a mass demonstration against king's totalitarian regime and asked him to listen to the civic society's growing demand for "total democracy". General Secretary of Nepal Janajati Mahasangh said that indigenous people have been victims of absolute monarchy for the past 237 years and the present scenario is the pinnacle. Representative of the Dalit Community said monarchy that rules under Hindu theology is the root of the ration discrimination in Nepal. "Over five million Dalits want abolition of monarchy. Speaking at a program organized on the occasion of founding of the European Economic Chamber of Trade, Commerce and Industry, the British Ambassador made the following comments: "I leave it to each of you to judge how far His Majesty's very laudable aim of restoring peace and strengthening democracy has bee achieved in the last six months, but I can't help but notice that a new and very different mentality seems to have set in over that period. A mentality in which those who argue for a negotiated peace with the Maoists are publicly attacked for advocating to giving in to terrorists, where democracy is presented as something that has to wait until the Maoists have been dealt with militarily, where there is no room for moderation and compromise - you either support those in power or you are seen as being sympathetic to the Maoists".
While the political parties and civil society continued to their agitation for the restoration of democracy, there is no indication that the king is ready to abandon absolute rule anytime soon. During their recent central committees meetings both NC and CPN/UML removed constitutional monarchy from their statues. UML went a step further by adopting democratic republic as their future platform. The king planned to attend and address the UN General Assembly in September as Nepal's head of state and during his address appeal to member nations to supply Nepal with military hardware in support of king's fight against terrorism. Then unexpectedly, the Maoist leadership declared a 3-months long unilateral cease-fire and appealed to the UN for assistance in bringing an end to the armed conflict. Subsequently, the royal government held an emergency meeting and two days later, the king cancelled his planned visit to UN and decided to send his foreign minister instead. The public, political parties and civil society welcomed the cease-fire, but the response from the royal government and the army leadership was negative, nor was the government prepared to reciprocate. On the contrary, the army stated it shall continue their offensive against the rebels in spite of the cease-fire. Thus in spite of the cease-fire, any prospect of peace talks resumption is nil.
Although the Election Commission announced the date for holding the municipal elections, all major political parties with the exception of the royalist RPP party decided to boycott the elections. During the Dasain holidays, the king announced that parliamentary elections would be held in April 2007. NC general secretary Ram Chandra Poudel said the NC would boycott any election called by the king and urged all other parties to do the same for the sake of democracy. "The king's announcement is aimed at extending his autocratic rule. We urge all not to be influenced by his new tactic." UML chief ruled out any 'compromise and understanding' with the king as, according to him, the latter has been isolated both at the national and international levels because of his autocratic nature. "The time has now come for the people to see Nepal without a king," he said, adding that efforts to forge a consensus with the monarch hold no meaning at a time when the entire country appears to be headed toward a republican set-up. In mid-October the king promulgated an ordinance that imposes repressive measures to control media's freedom of expression.
In November the king went on three-seek long foreign visit to Bangladesh and some African countries. During his absence, the NC and UML leaders made more than one visit to India, where the Indian government unofficially sanctioned meetings with Maoist leadership that have culminated in reaching a 12-point agreement to bring the rebels into political mainstream and to end the 13-year long insurrection. The meeting point was an agreement to hold constitutional assembly elections to draft a new constitution and to let the Nepalese people decide on the future of monarchy. There is no mention of a republican setup in the agreement to allow the king to assume ceremonial role should the people vote for the retention of monarchy. The Maoists also pledge to fully abide by the results of constituent assembly elections. In the king's absence, the members of the royal government were critical of the agreement stating that it was reached at the behest of foreigners.
People were anxious to know king's reaction how to respond to the Maoist-seven party pact and to the rising tide for the restoration of peace in the country on his return from Africa. Among the key actors at this point, king Gyanendra seems to be the most unpredictable. The terrorism agenda, with which the king seized power in February has come to haunt him. Since the Maoist announced unilateral cease-fire three months ago, and especially after the Maoists-seven party peace accord, it is the state that is increasingly seen as a warmonger. In his message on arrival in Nepal, the king sent a clear message to the seven-party alliance, the Maoists and the international community that he is not relenting and intends to follow his own three-year roadmap. He took a decision contrary to what was expected. It is also suggests that the king is unwilling to join hands with the democratic forces that are opposed to his February 1 power grab. The king also re-shuffled his government and added a few known faces from RPP and RJP parties both led by former Panchas, but could not garner those parties support for his government and the scheduled municipal elections. Politically, the expansion of the cabinet does not improve the image of the government, since the king is hinging on a few diehard royalists.
In mid-November, US ambassador left on a ten-day visit to Washington to brief his government on the political situation in Nepal. Prior to his departure, he cautiously welcomed the parties-Maoists 12-point accord, as also did the European community, Britain and United Nations. Several sources offered their services as mediators. One major sticking point of the 12-point agreement are the constituent assembly elections. All previous peace negotiations with the rebels failed because of this very issue. The king was obviously unwilling to put his popularity to test. In the present political scenario, it is still the king who has to allow such elections to take place through the formation of an all-party government. The anti-autocracy demonstrations staged by the two key political parties - NC and UML - have been drawing huge crowds in spite of government efforts to prevent people from attending them. UML's current platform is the abolishment of monarchy and formation of a republican state should the Nepalese people vote in its favor. The NC, although it has removed constitutional monarchy from its statue, would still allow the king to remain, but only in ceremonial capacity.
In spite of pressure by the international community, the UN and civil society on the king his government to reciprocate the cease-fire in order to create a favorable environment for peace negotiation, it was flatly rejected by the royal government. Instead, during the last week of the four-months long cease-fire, the army launched a major offensive in Rolpa district, the main base area of the Maoists. The response by the rebel leadership was the termination of the cease-fire and numerous attacks on government facilities. The rebels also stated that they shall abide by the 12-point agreement reached with the political parties. Throughout January the anti-government protests intensified attracting very large numbers of people. A huge demonstration was planned in Kathmandu on January 20, which has created a panic situation within the royal government. One day prior to the demonstration, early in the morning the security forces made mass arrests of political leaders and the government declared 24-hour curfew to foil the mass protest against autocracy. Although some of the leaders have been released, more than two hundred leaders have been served three-months long detention notices. UML's general secretary M.K. Nepal has been imposed three-months long house arrest.
In spite of the total ban on all gatherings and protests inside the ring road, they continued in spite of very repressive measures by the royal regime and resulted in many arrests. In mid-January, the RPP party split again, with dissident faction led by the home minister Kamal Thapa becoming its leader. In this crisis environment the royal government is getting ready to stage municipal elections on February 8 with only one fringe political party represented in the now dissolved parliament taking part in them, but their candidate for mayor was shot dead. The election results are very predictable, with the dissident RPP-T faction filing nominations for all important posts and forcing some candidates to withdraw their candidacy in favor of RPP-T to assure their candidate will be elected unopposed. According to the data provided by the election commission on January 29, of the total of 4146 seats in the 58 municipalities, no nomination was filed for 2104 seats or more than one half. The political parties have been campaigning for people not to cast votes. The Maoists have also declared a week-long general strike to coincide with the elections.
The attitude of the royal government and the fact that it has turned a deaf ear on all peace initiatives has had very negative impact on the economy. Although tourism increased considerably last fall due to the Maoist declared cease-fire, it has taken a nose dive since the resumption of hostilities. A number of western governments have issued travel advisories against non-essential travel to Nepal. On the anniversary day of the royal takeover, the king issued other proclamation praising the accomplishments of his absolute rule since February 1, 2005. However, the private sector media analysts' perception was quite different:
1. Claim: ....Acts of terrorism [are] being limited to petty crimes.
Reality: Maoist rebels seem only to have been emboldened in the last one year. They have carried out at least six major attacks on security forces, including in Kathmandu Valley (Khara, Pili, Nepalgunj, Bhojpur, Tansen, and Thankot and Dadikot in the Valley) in eight months since February 1, 2005 (the Maoists had announced a unilateral ceasefire for four months). The rebels killed 524 people during eight months of the last one year. Similarly, security forces killed 924 people during that period.